[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121513
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-121615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...southern TN...far northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121513Z - 121615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A small tornado watch is being considered for southern TN
into far northwest GA as a squall line continues to move east
towards the area later this morning and into the midday hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over southern middle
TN extending southwest into northern AL.  Surface analysis shows
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s with temperatures into the mid
60s.  KHTX VAD shows strong southwesterly mid-level flow (70 kt
around 6 km AGL) and forecast soundings show enlarged low-level
hodographs.  Although buoyancy is seemingly the limiting ingredient,
forecast soundings show around 250 J/kg MLCAPE, likely adequate for
a continued risk for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Smith/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35258583 35378528 35238470 34748449 33958504 33958539
            34978562 35258583
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