[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121744
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-121945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121744Z - 121945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal severe risk to continue through the afternoon.
Downstream watch unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms currently moving across
northern Kentucky has trended downward in intensity in the last
hour. Surface based CAPE has become meager around 100-200 J/kg ahead
of the eastward advancing line. There is some indication in recent
HRRR runs that a line storms developing currently across middle
Tennessee could increase in coverage and track northeastward into
portions of eastern Kentucky by around 22z. Areas along the eastern
Kentucky/Tennessee border may see marginal recovery, with RAP
analysis showing around 500 J/kg ahead of the potential secondary
line of storms. A brief uptick in activity could be possible by the
afternoon as increased flow aloft (around 45-55 kts at 850 mb)
continues to keep shear profiles favorable for a few pulse severe
storms. Watch issuance is unlikely.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36928537 37098496 37408451 37638401 37858354 37788297
            37608290 37408292 37178302 36918325 36758348 36608364
            36618476 36588530 36688575 36928537
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