[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052212
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-060015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Eastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052212Z - 060015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds will likely accompany storms as they spread
east this evening.

DISCUSSION...An elongated band of pre-frontal convection is
progressing steadily east across central KY and middle TN. Strong
surface heating ahead of this activity is contributing to steep
surface-3km lapse rates with values of 8-9 C/km within a strongly
sheared environment. Several organized line segments, with some
bowing, are noted within the broader zone of convection. Localized
severe winds have been observed with this activity. Forecast
soundings exhibit a relatively deep boundary layer with modest
sub-cloud RH values, and this should contribute to gusty downdrafts
as convection spreads east of current watch.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36028525 38578372 38218257 35778414 36028525
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