[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051751
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-051915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southern/central Kentucky...western and Middle
Tennessee...and far northeast Mississippi into northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051751Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new watch will be needed in the next 1-2 hours from
portions of central/southern Kentucky into western/Middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
from southern IL and extending south/southwest near the MS River
ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Bowing segments within
the line have show some increase in intensity over the past hour.
The current track of this line will bring storms into
southern/central KY southward to parts of western/Middle TN by
around 19-20z. A new watch will likely be needed in the next hour or
two downstream from WW 126.

Strong heating across the region has allowed temperatures to warm
into the low/mid 80s F amid low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints. This
will contribute to a corridor of destabilization ahead of the line,
with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Vertical shear
will remain favorable for continued organized convection despite
stronger large-scale ascent shifting northeast of the region.
Damaging wind potential is expected to continue, with at least some
risk for a tornado or two with line-embedded mesovortices. A tornado
risk also could accompany any cells that develop ahead of the line,
as vertical shear will support supercell structures. Latest HRRR and
RRFS guidance suggests some potential for a couple of supercells
exists from Middle TN into south-central KY. Latest visible
satellite imagery shows some deepening cumulus beneath higher cirrus
on the edges of weakening inhibition, so this outcome at least
appears plausible.

Uncertainty exists regarding southward extent of the threat into
parts of northern MS/northwest AL, especially with regard to tornado
potential. A watch may be needed for parts of this area at some
point this afternoon.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35828614 34888709 34528767 34498820 34518871 34668911
            34848928 35058927 35518894 36698757 37438690 37708651
            37928561 37968514 37758489 37428483 36928509 36548537
            35828614
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