[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032235
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-032330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kentucky into West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 032235Z - 032330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity is
underway. A few of the strongest storms may produce large hail or
damaging gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Relatively widespread convection is underway across
portions of the Ohio Valley towards the Central Appalachians given
deep-layer ascent supplied by a passing mid-level shortwave and
associated surface troughing. While low-level moisture convergence
is present across the Ohio Valley, associated low-level flow is
quite weak, contributing to mediocre low-level shear profiles. As
such, convection has been relatively outflow dominant over the past
couple of hours, with a slowly southward sagging outflow boundary
identified by KRLX WSR-88D. Nonetheless, convection along the OH/KY
border is embedded within stronger mid-level flow associated with
the aforementioned trough aloft, where adequate deep-layer shear may
support some updraft organization, despite cellular movement being
roughly perpendicular to an outflow boundary.

Convection will also be glancing the northern periphery of steeper
mid-level lapse rates, that in addition to deep-layer shear, may
support some isolated severe hail growth. In addition, a mixed out
boundary layer (extending up to 700 mb in spots per latest RAP
forecast soundings) farther east into West Virginia and points
eastward may encourage a few damaging gusts, especially for
downdrafts laden with graupel and small hail. The biggest concern
for severe is with a the development and northeast movement of a MCV
associated with a gradually weakening bow echo to the southwest.
This MCV may traverse the aforementioned boundaries, where MCV
strengthening and a subsequent, more concentrated damaging wind
threat may occur. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the
need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37468105 36798284 36698406 36538506 36378564 36408648
            36528684 36888693 37248655 38118466 38848351 38988310
            39138201 39258075 39238029 38898005 38688000 38438001
            38138017 37878047 37468105
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