[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032008
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Much of Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern
Kentucky and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

Valid 032008Z - 032115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of relatively
brief and weak tornadoes, across Middle Tennessee, including the
Greater Nashville Metropolitan area by 4-5 PM CDT.  A new severe
weather watch likely will be issued to the east of WW 158 shortly.

DISCUSSION...Supported by inflow of moist boundary layer air with
CAPE on the order of 1500+ J/kg, a relatively compact but organized
and vigorous mesoscale convective system is maintaining intensity as
it progresses east of the Mississippi River.  Based on recent radar
trends, the severe hail threat appears to have diminished, at least
somewhat.  However, damaging wind gusts continue to be observed,
particularly to the southeast of the lower/mid tropospheric
mesoscale convective vortex which may turn eastward  near/along the
Kentucky/Tennessee border.

System motion has shown little signs of slowing, and at around 50
kts, convection appears on track to impact the Nashville metroplitan
area between 4 and 5 PM CDT.

Maintenance of convective intensity, and continuation of associated
severe wind and potential for relatively brief, weak tornadoes, into
the Cumberland Plateau remains more unclear.  Based on its current
motion, this possible by 7-8 PM EDT.  However, drier air emanating
from southeastern U.S. surface ridging may result in less unstable
inflow and weakening convective trends as suggested by at least some
model output, including the last few runs of the High-resolution
Rapid Refresh.

..Kerr.. 05/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36828802 37108701 37038523 37078353 36188327 35178497
            34918635 34968817 35118965 35238963 35718871 36298803
            36828802
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet