[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031750
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...northeastern
Arkansas...southern Illinois...western Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...158...

Valid 031750Z - 031915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157, 158
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for strong wind gusts and perhaps a short-lived
tornado or two probably will increase through 3-5 PM CDT with an
organized cluster of thunderstorms spreading into and across the
region.

DISCUSSION...The organized convective system is maintaining strength
and speed of forward (east-southeastward) progagation around 50 kt,
toward areas of the Mississippi Valley near and just south of the
Ohio River.  Its associated surface cold pool appears to be
strengthening, with 2-3 mb 2 hourly surface pressure rises evident
in 17Z surface observations at Vichy and West Plains, Missouri.

Strongest updrafts are now focused on the southern flank of the
system which has shifted south of the state border into northern
Arkansas, near/east-southeast of Flippin.  This is near the northern
periphery of very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm
elevated mixed-layer air, which may be contributing to the
occasional production of very large hail in excess of 2 inches based
on MRMS data.

Otherwise, farther north and northeast, the primary severe threat
probably has transitioned to potentially damaging winds along the
strengthening gust front.  The warming and moistening boundary layer
ahead of the gust front continues to destabilize, and convection
still seems likely to become rooted increasingly closer to the
surface through 20-21Z.  Due to weaker flow near the surface, weaker
mean flow in the convective layer may result in some slowing of
forward propagation.  However, further strengthening of the cold
pool and rear inflow seems probable, which may be accompanied by
increasing potential for intensifying mesovortices near the gust
front, along with locally enhanced surface gusts and perhaps a
short-lived tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 05/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37509035 37438897 37218622 35888778 35549023 35539043
            35809181 36159248 36759152 37379128 37509035
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet