[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032318
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Much of Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...

Valid 032318Z - 040015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the leading line of a
weakening bow echo across middle into eastern Tennessee, with some
marginally severe hail accompanying storms northeast of Memphis.

DISCUSSION...Though on a gradual downward trend, the severe threat
continues across WW 0159 in association with a classic "bow and
arrow" structured bow echo across middle into western Tennessee. The
bow echo leading line continues to move into a mixed out low-level
airmass across eastern Tennessee, with a weakening trend noted.
Nonetheless, the leading line continues to traverse a region of
steep low and mid-level lapse rates, suggesting that some damaging
wind threat will continue with this convection for a few more hours.

Farther west, an 925-850 mb moist axis bissects the bow-echo
training cold pool, optimizing parcel ascent atop colder, denser air
to reach their LFCs across western TN, where stronger storms have
been noted based on KNQA WSR-88D data, with up to golfball hail
reported over the past hour. Low level moisture advection over the
cold pool, with some steeper mid-level lapse rates gradually
advection eastward, may foster some severe hail potential with the
stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 05/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35968940 36758794 36698536 36598484 35918462 35328487
            34638573 34408648 34768782 35048897 35968940
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