[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121613
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Areas affected...Southwest MO/MO Bootheel...Southern IL...Western
KY...Northwest/Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 121613Z - 121815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms as well as the potential for more
storms this afternoon and evening will likely necessitate Tornado
Watch issuance within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorm currently ongoing across the MO
Bootheel eastward into far northwest TN/far western KY has shown a
general strengthening trend over the past hour or so. This cluster
appears to have been initiated by the low/mid jet streak extending
from eastern OK into northern AR/southern MO. This jet streak is
expected to continue eastward throughout the day, providing both
mesoscale forcing for ascent as well as enhanced low-level vertical
shear. The ongoing cluster is evidence that the ascent is enough to
lift parcels to their LFCs and the rotation noted in these cells,
particularly those over the MO Bootheel and far northwest TN, is
evidence of the enhanced vertical shear.

Expectation is for this cluster to continue northeastward/eastward.
More eastward moving storms will maintain a closer proximity to the
warm front extending across the region, resulting in access to
greater low-level moisture and higher surface-based potential.
Current surface analysis places the warm front from just south of
the MO Bootheel east-northeastward to BNA. Primary threat with the
elevated/more northeastward-progressing storms will be hail, but the
more surface-based/eastward-progressing storms will also have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. These
threats will likely prompt watch issuance within the next hour.

..Mosier/Hart.. 03/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36879049 37908922 38038715 37448592 36278671 35668807
            35719024 36879049
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