[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242026
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...far northeastern
Arkansas...northwestern Tennessee...far western Kentucky...and far
southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242026Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated convection continues to deepen and migrate
southeastward across southeastern Missouri currently.  This activity
will pose an isolated hail/wind risk through about 02Z or so.  A WW
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A deepening cumulus field over southeastern Missouri
has evolved into a few isolated thunderstorms near/southeast of the
Farmington, MO area over the past half hour.  Radar imagery suggests
that these cores have deepened beyond the freezing level, with some
indication of small hail noted in the most dominant activity.  These
storms are in a weakly buoyant airmass (900-1300 J/kg MUCAPE)
boosted by low-70s F surface temperatures and near 60F dewpoints.
Shear profiles are supportive of organization, however, with a
general east-southeastward motion near/along the warm front expected
over the next few hours.  Dominant storms may produce hail
approaching 1 inch in diameter through early evening and a few
strong wind gusts may also occur.  This threat will likely remain
isolated enough to preclude a watch issuance, although storms should
persist through sunset before weakening.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37899048 38059005 37848935 37278822 36558778 35778815
            35508884 35658952 35789019 36169074 36739094 37299089
            37899048
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