[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192322
TNZ000-200045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...Parts of Middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

Valid 192322Z - 200045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado, large hail, and damaging wind threat
continues across Tornado Watch 14.

DISCUSSION...Cloudiness from earlier convection has hindered
destabilization with northward extent across middle TN.
Thunderstorms that have formed along a pre-frontal trough have
struggled to strengthen thus far, likely owing to limited
instability across this area. 23Z RAP mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE
generally ranges from 250 to no more than 500 J/kg across middle TN,
with a warm front extending southeastward from a surface low near
Nashville, TN. Still, even with the marginal thermodynamic
environment, strong effective bulk shear will continue to support
supercell structures, with an isolated tornado, large hail, and
damaging wind threat remaining possible across WW 14 in the short
term.

..Gleason.. 03/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...

LAT...LON   35818705 36598654 36608573 36158515 35598572 35818705
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