[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 290127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290127
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-290300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Mississippi...northwestern
Alabama and adjacent southern middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 23...

Valid 290127Z - 290300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 23 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe weather appears in the process of
diminishing.  Strongest remaining storms may begin to spread
northeast/east of Tornado Watch 23 by 9-10 PM CDT.  Another watch
does not seem necessary.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent accompanying a lower/mid
tropospheric wave continues to develop northeastward toward the
Tennessee Valley.  Strongest thunderstorm activity associated with
this has largely remain confined to a relatively narrow corridor on
the northwestern periphery of warmer and capping mid-level air
associated with subtropical ridging.  This generally coincides with
an effective surface warm frontal zone, extending east of the
convection across the Tupelo/Columbus MS area into northwestern
Alabama.

It appears that a small cluster of vigorous thunderstorm activity
may progress northeast of the watch area by around 02-03Z.  However,
based on the latest objective analysis, a more stable/stabilizing
near surface environment seems likely to result in a continued
gradual diminishment of already somewhat marginal severe weather
potential.  A few strong gusts may continue with remnant convection
until it dissipated, but another watch does not seem necessary.

..Kerr.. 03/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34028924 34818793 35058655 34328703 33438855 33158932
            34028924

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