[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202254
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Kentucky...Tennessee...northern Mississippi and
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 202254Z - 210130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to redevelop during the 00-03Z
period along and perhaps ahead of the front, with a few tornadoes,
very large hail, and damaging winds. Significant severe weather is
possible.

DISCUSSION...An initial round of severe storms is currently lifting
northeast across central KY, but a very favorable environment
remains in place across the region ahead of a front. This boundary,
currently extending from southern IN and IL into southeast MO and
northern AR, will shift south this evening. Meanwhile, the main
shortwave aloft over MO will dive southeastward across the lower MS
Valley. The expectation is for storms to form both along the
boundary, and possibly farther east across the open warm sector
where a CU field currently exits, or, a southward extension of the
ongoing KY activity into middle TN. Shear profiles will favor
supercells, and perhaps bowing lines with time should outflow
production be more than expected. While model solutions vary with
the location, timing, and mode of expected severe storms, the
environment is extremely unstable with unseasonably strong shear
profiles. Thus, damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes are all possible.

..Jewell/Goss.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36578913 35918970 35239063 34749098 34319105 34049049
            33958971 33938892 33998669 34248601 34838545 35728482
            36298481 36828502 37178564 37498649 37528708 37248792
            36988855 36578913
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