[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202237
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-202330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Indiana...northern Kentucky...and
southwest Ohio.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 289...

Valid 202237Z - 202330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 289 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue across tornado watch 285 with
all severe hazards still possible. The strongest storms are most
likely in the southern half of the watch.

DISCUSSION...Additional storms continue to fire on the western edge
of ongoing activity across eastern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Solar insolation and low-level moist advection has continued to
destabilize this area with MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. The 21Z KLVX
VWP shows effective shear around 35 to 40 knots with slightly higher
effective shear further south in Kentucky per RAP mesoanalysis. This
combination of CAPE and shear will continue to support supercell
structures, especially across Kentucky. Mid-level lapse rates of 8.2
C/km per 21Z BNA sounding combined with the aforementioned shear and
buoyancy will continue to support large hail, possibly significant
through the evening hours. While 1 km flow remains around 30 knots
per KLVX VWP, flow is significantly weaker (~15 kts) at KHPX.
However, storm mode and some low-level shear will continue to
support at least some tornado threat even though the stronger storms
have now shifted south of this stronger low-level jet and surface
winds have veered. Will need to continue to monitor the low-level
winds across this area as models indicate some strengthening of the
low-level flow later this evening which could lead to a renewed
greater tornado threat.

Further north and east, the severe threat has lessened as several
rounds of storms have stabilized the airmass. Continued storm
development to the west will provide little opportunity for any
additional destabilization.

..Bentley.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36638708 36608628 36648552 36638503 36718478 37268446
            37608428 38188398 38608373 39098350 39478345 39788344
            39958412 40048488 40018536 39778615 38208678 36638734
            36638708
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