[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 040440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040440
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN TN AND
NERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 55...

VALID 040440Z - 040615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 55 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF WW 55.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO
THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AN/OR INTERACT WITH
THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF A STALLED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SERN MO...FAR SRN IL TO SWRN KY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
 ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF WW 55.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THREE
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE MERGED FROM SERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THE STORMS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STALLED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED
ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF WW 55...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000
J/KG...AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE WW.  DESPITE THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 50-65 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...SUCH THAT STRONGER CORES WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE
THREAT.  EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INVOF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY.  SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXTENDED SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW
55 WHERE MUCAPE IS GREATER THAN FARTHER N WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA OVER NERN AR/ADJACENT SERN
MO INDICATED A RECENT UPTICK IN STRIKES FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF AN ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERING THE
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 04/04/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35929133 37029025 38278884 38318843 38208679 37268685
            36618710 36678801 36188832 35738906 35638979 35459023
            35509100 35929133



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