[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 040640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040639
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-040915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHEAST
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040639Z - 040915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREAS E/NE OF TORNADO WATCH 55 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF
A TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SRN INDIANA TO NWRN TN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND PERHAPS DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR DATA IMPLY THAT POTENTIAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA LIE WELL UPSTREAM -- EXTENDING FROM IA TO ERN OK.
MEANWHILE...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SFC THETA-E IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY N OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW/ESE ACROSS CNTRL KY THAT WAS DEPOSITED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE PAST DAY AND IS BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING
ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE APPROACHING THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND A VWP-IMPLIED 40-60-KT LLJ SUPPORTS STRONG
POLEWARD MASS FLUXES...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE --
ESPECIALLY S OF THE LEXINGTON-LOUISVILLE CORRIDOR. AND...WITH THE
INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FLOW...CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS E/NE. CONVECTIVE
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT COULD FOSTER A DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS...WHILE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BREED SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LINE-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITH TORNADOES. THE LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...MAY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35918825 36648741 38088683 38868641 39538531 39838408
            39488347 38408386 37048501 35848658 35918825



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