[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171934
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-172030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA...CNTRL KY...NRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171934Z - 172030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.

DISCUSSION...THE WARM SECTOR OF A POWERFUL DEEP CYCLONE WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 563 AFTER 21Z...WITH STRONG DEEP ASCENT
FORECAST TO SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE STUNTING BUOYANCY AT PRESENT -- AS SAMPLED BY THE 19Z BNA
SOUNDING -- LARGE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSES ACCOMPANYING THE SFC CYCLONE
TO THE N WILL DRIVE AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY
ACROSS THE MCD AREA IN ADVANCE OF A CONSOLIDATING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
STRONG WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP
DATA -- E.G. 0-1-KM AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 40 KT AND
AOA 60 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH EVOLVING LEWP STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
QLCS/S...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN STRENGTHENING WAA IN ADVANCE OF MORE LINEARLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36028608 35798782 36248790 36948708 37738687 38648628
            38788436 38128410 36938466 36028608


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