[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171757
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-171930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...WRN KY...NWRN
TN...NERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...

VALID 171757Z - 171930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 563.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION
SHIFTING EWD INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM CNTRL AR INTO
E-CNTRL MO. THIS ACTIVITY LIES AT THE S END OF THE STRONGEST DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A POTENT VORT MAX TO THE NORTH. STORMS
SHOULD INTENSIFY WHILE SHIFTING EWD AROUND 50 KT AS BUOYANCY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO DIABATIC SFC-LAYER
HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE-60S DEWPOINTS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS AND THE ATTENDANT SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MO INTO SRN IL. FARTHER
S...THE INFLUX OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SOME EXTENT. REGARDLESS...REGIONAL VWP DATA
INDICATE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTING 0-1-KM SRH
IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 AND 60-75 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38199091 38208760 35888813 35909128 38199091


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