[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171617
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-171815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171617Z - 171815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED S OF WW/S
561/562...WITH RISKS FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CELLULAR CONVECTION IS INCREASING S OF WW 561 ACROSS
S-CNTRL MO AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSOLATION OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND A BROADER STRATUS
DECK NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE HEATING THROUGH THE 70S WITHIN THE PLUME OF MIDDLE 60S DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED RELATIVE TO FARTHER N...AMPLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE TYPES AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38179138 38228977 38408727 38148678 37678680 37038696
            36338771 36008829 35868936 35919086 36079156 36309195
            36659206 38179138



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