[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 172043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172043
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INDIANA...WRN KY...SRN IL...NWRN TN...FAR SERN
MO...NERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...

VALID 172043Z - 172145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 563.

DISCUSSION...DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST E OF ONGOING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS NEAR PADUCAH AND E
OF SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS. THESE CLUSTERS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AROUND
50-55 KT. EVANSVILLE AND PADUCAH VWP DATA INDICATE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45-50 KT -- AMIDST MLCAPE
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ADEQUATE SPACING BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT-TERM. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTHERN SUPERCELL CLUSTER AFFECTS AREAS NEAR AND
E OF PADUCAH AND THE NORTHERN SUPERCELL CLUSTER AFFECTS AREAS SOUTH
OF EVANSVILLE TOWARD OWENSBORO. FARTHER S ACROSS WW 563...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
CONSOLIDATES TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...THE DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY PROVE TO BE DELETERIOUS FOR
UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

..COHEN.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36129112 37168946 38468860 38498747 38068693 37078720
            36418806 35888928 35709056 36129112


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