[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Hurricane Lee is centered near 14.9N 46.4W at
06/2100 UTC or 980 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving
WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Satellite imagery show that Lee is organizing rather quickly.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is over the center and
within 60 nm of the center, except 90 nm in the SE quadrant.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and
within 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Banding features have started
to become evident during the past few hours. Lee is forecast to
maintain its present motion for the next few days, with a slight
reduction in forward speed over the weekend. Continued steady to
rapid strengthening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a
major hurricane in a day or two. Swells generated by Lee are
expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and
reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave has its axis along 22W from 03N to 19N. A 1009 mb
low is along the wave near 13N22W. This system is part of a broad
area of low pressure that is producing an area of scattered
moderate to isolated convection within about 240 nm north and
northwest of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while moving toward
the west-northwest over the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. The low is expected to move across the Cabo Verde
Islands overnight and early on Thu, and interests there should
monitor its progress. This system has a medium chance of becoming
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that was previously along 87W/88W south of
18N has moved inland Central America. This wave is being
described in the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
(MIATWDEP)

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwest to the 1009 mb low
near 13N22W and to 12N26W to 13N35W. Aside from convection
described with Invest 96, scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 10N between 25W-30W, and to the southwest of the
trough within 60 nm of 11N36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the southeastern United States dominates the
Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak
surface trough is over the north-central Gulf along a position
from 29N89W to 26N90W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
east of the trough from 25N to 28N between 86W-88W and over the
central Gulf from 22N to 25N west of 85W, while an area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is over the southeast Gulf
from 24N to 27N between 82W-85W. Latest altimeter data has seas
of 1-3 ft over the basin.

For the forecast, the weak surface over the north-central Gulf
will continue to induce showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. Otherwise, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
most of the forecast period supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds just
W of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low
supports fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean.
Seas are 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, with the
highest seas near the coast of Colombia. gulf moderate to fresh
trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft
are elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. Lower
seas of 1-3 ft are present elsewhere.

The tail end of a central Atlantic trough extends southwest to
just south of Windward Passage. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted north 17N between 75W-77W. A tropical
wave that recently moved inland Central America is helping to
enhance scattered moderate convection over some areas of
Guatemala and the far southern section of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are noted elsewhere. Isolated showers may be possible with some
this moisture.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
into the far southwestern Caribbean. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen south of 11N and west of 80W to along the
coasts of Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the
weekend. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail elsewhere. Hurricane Lee is near 14.9N 46.4W at 5 PM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 991 mb. Lee will strengthen to a major hurricane Fri afternoon
near 18.6N 55.3W, then move to near 20.4N 59.4W Sat afternoon,
near 22N63W Sun afternoon, and near 23N65W Mon afternoon. Lee
could bring some impacts to the northern Leeward Islands Fri
night through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Hurricane
Lee and on the eastern Atlantic Invest AL96.

A surface trough extends from near 29N60W to the Windward
Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with
the trough that is a reflection of an upper-level trough
extending across the western Atlantic. The surface trough will
move westward over the next 48-72 hours as the Atlantic high
pressure builds westward. Farther east, another surface trough
enters the area through 31N51W and continues south 22N52W.
Isolated showers are near the trough axis. Low pressure of 1013
mb, the remnants of Katia, is near 27N31.5W. Isolated showers
are possible with the low. An area of 8 ft is associated
with the low is over the waters roughly from 26N to 29N between
32W-36W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under
the influence of weak high pressure centers. Outside of Lee, seas
of 5-7 ft dominate most of the waters E of 55W.

Over the far eastern part of the area, the western part of a
cold front extends along 32N between 20W-26W. No significant
convection is occurring with this front.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee is near 14.9N 46.4W at
5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Lee will strengthen to a major
hurricane Fri afternoon near 18.6N 55.3W, then move to near 20.4N
59.4W Sat afternoon, near 22N63W Sun afternoon, and near 23N65W
Mon afternoon. Lee could bring some impacts to the northern
Leeward Islands Fri night through the weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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