[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

The center of Tropical Storm LEE, at 06/1500 UTC, is near
14.1N 45.5W. LEE is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees,
12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts
to 75 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 70 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 70 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are
12 feet or greater is: within 120 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are 21 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is
within 90 nm of the center. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate is within 300 nm
of the center in the SW quadrant.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

...INVEST AL96...

A strong tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 11N. Moderate and fresh
winds are from 25N southward from 30W eastward. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 600 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant. The environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
later this week or this weekend. The system will be moving
toward the WNW 10 mph to 15 mph in the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. This system is expected to move to the
Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Anyone who has
interests there should monitor the progress of this
weather system.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from
18N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 15N northward from 80W westward in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center
that is with the 20W/21W tropical wave, to 13N33W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 06N to 12N between 33W and 38W. Some
of the precipitation that is close to the 20W/21W
tropical wave and the 1009 mb low pressure center also
is to the south of the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows
a trough that passes through the Florida Panhandle to the
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward
from 92W eastward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 26N100W
in Mexico, to 18N93W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is from 20N southward between 94W and 95W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the NE of the line
30N91W in Louisiana, 25N83W. An inland Mexico 1015 mb high
pressure center is near 22N99W.

The sea heights are: 3 feet from the middle Texas coastal
waters to the Florida Panhandle coastal waters, and into
the west central Gulf; 1 foot off the coast of the Florida
Big Bend; 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate SE winds were in much
of the western half of the area. Moderate or slower winds
are elsewhere.

A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters most of the
forecast period supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas, with the exception of gentle to moderate
winds just W of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes through the
Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 17N into the Windward Passage
between 70W and 78W.

The forecast consists of: E winds 20 knots to 25 knots,
and seas 8 feet to 9 feet, from 11N to 13N between
70W and 77W including in the Gulf of Venezuela, for
the next 24 hours. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 17N
southward in the central one-third of the area. Moderate
easterly winds are in the eastern one-third, and in the
rest of the central one-third of the area. Gentle winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
are: from 6 feet to 8 feet in the southern half of the
central one-third of the area...a maximum of 9 feet is
off the coast of Colombia between 76W and 77W;
from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 80W eastward;
mostly 2 feet from 80W westward, except for 1 foot
off the eastern coast of Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 06/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 0.41 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.38 in Tegucigalpa
in Honduras; 0.14 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; and 0.12
in Trinidad.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from 73W in Colombia
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 11N southward from 80W westward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the southern
half of Nicaragua, and in the northern areas of Costa Rica.

Tropical Storm Lee is near 14.1N 45.5W at 11 AM EDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Lee will strengthen to a hurricane by
this evening near 14.8N 47.3W, strengthen to a major
hurricane near 17.6N 54.7W Fri morning, move to near
20N59W Sat morning, 21.5N 63W Sun morning, and 23N66W
Mon morning. Lee could bring some impacts to the northern
Leeward Islands Fri night through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about T.S. LEE, and the INVEST AL96 20W/21W tropical wave.

A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 22N northward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on
either side of the trough.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 22N62W.
A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 30N79W.
A surface trough is in between the areas of surface
anticyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from the Greater Antilles
northward between 60W and the Bahamas.

The remnant low pressure center of KATIA is a 1012 mb
low pressure center that is near 27N32W. A surface trough
is along 31N21W, to the low center, to 24N39W. Expect fresh
winds within 210 nm of the center in the SW quadrant,
and within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle.
The sea heights are 6 feet to 8 feet from 22N northward
from 40W eastward.

Moderate or slower wind speeds, and sea heights from 3 feet
to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is near the Canary Islands
near 26N17W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will
continue in the central and eastern Caribbean into the
weekend. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight
seas will prevail elsewhere. Tropical Storm Lee is
near 14.1N 45.5W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving
west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Lee will strengthen to a hurricane
by this evening near 14.8N 47.3W, strengthen to a major
hurricane near 17.6N 54.7W Fri morning, move to near
20N59W Sat morning, 21.5N 63W Sun morning, and 23N66W
Mon morning. Lee could bring some impacts to the northern
Leeward Islands Fri night through the weekend.

$$
mt/ah
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