[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

The center of Tropical Depression THIRTEEN, at 05/1500 UTC,
is near 12.5N 40.2W. The tropical depression is moving
toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect
E to SE winds 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights that
range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from 11N to 17N between 36W
and 42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 480 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant, and within 360 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is from 10N to 12N between 20W and 22W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to
16N between 15W and 20W. The environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for gradual development. It is possible that
a tropical depression may form in the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean during the middle to latter part of the week.
The system will be moving toward west-northwest 10 mph to
15 mph. This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde
Islands on Wednesday night and Thursday. Anyone who has
interests there should monitor the progress of this feature.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from
18N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N to 17N between 79W and 86W, in the
Caribbean Sea and in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border
of Senegal and Mauritania, to 13N25W 12N35W 12N45W
11N52W. The ITCZ continues from 11N52W, to 11N60W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 05N to 09N between 27W and 30W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to
12N between 12W and 24W. Isolated moderate is
mostly from 02N to 10N between 19W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through
NE coastal Mexico, through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the southern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the central coast of Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N southward
from 89W westward.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic
circulation center in the center of the Gulf of Mexico.
The GFS model for 500 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation
center in the Florida Keys. The GFS model for 700 mb
shows an inverted trough, that extends from the coastal
areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
toward the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm
to the SE of the 700 mb inverted trough.

The sea heights are: from 3-4 feet from 24N northward; 2 feet
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds span the area.

High pressure over the SE US will support moderate E to
SE winds across most of the basin through tonight, and
gentle to moderate winds thereafter through mid-week.
Afterward, a weak pressure gradient will result in light
to gentle winds and slight seas the remainder of the
forecast period, with the exception of gentle to moderate
winds, mainly at night, just W of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The forecast consists of: NE-to-E winds 20 knots to
30 knots, and seas to 8 feet, from 11N to 14N between
68W and 75W including in the Gulf of Venezuela, for
the next 24 hours. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.
The sea heights are: from 6 feet to 7 feet from Venezuela
northward to just to the south of the Mona Passage between
the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage; from 4 feet to
5 feet elsewhere from Jamaica eastward; from 2 feet to
3 feet from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to SE Cuba,
to Jamaica, to the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea;
1 foot elsewhere.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 05/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 0.37 in Merida in Mexico.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is directly related to the
monsoon trough.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will
continue in the central and eastern Caribbean the entire
forecast period, except for developing fresh to strong
winds in the south central waters tonight into Wed.
Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail elsewhere. Tropical Depression Thirteen is
near 12.5N 40.2W at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt.
Max winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Thirteen
will move to near 13N42W this evening while
strengthening to a tropical storm, strengthen
to a hurricane near 15N50W Thu morning, 17N55W
Fri morning, strengthen to a major hurricane
near 19N59W Sat morning, and move to near
21.5N 63.5W Sun morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about T.D. THIRTEEN, and the 17W/18W tropical wave.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N50W 24N54W.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N42W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the
center covers the areas that are from 22N northward
between 36W and 52W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 22N northward between 38W and 55W.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 21N62W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward from
64W westward. A surface trough is in the middle of the
two areas of surface anticyclonic wind flow, along
30N60W 24N68W, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the
Windward Passage to 27N between 58W and 80W.

The remnant low pressure center of KATIA is a 1012 mb
low pressure center that is near 29N35W. Expect NE winds
20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights that range from
8 feet to 11 feet, from 27N to 31N between 35W and 38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 28N northward between 27W and 34W.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is in the Canary Islands
near 28N17W.

Expect moderate or slower winds, and sea heights 8 feet to
10 feet in NW-to-N swell, from 20N northward between 41W
and 68W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 18N to 24N
from 20W eastward.

Seas of 8 to 10 ft in N to NE swell are occurring over
much of the area N of 25N E of 68W. This swell event will
continue to subside today with seas less than 8 ft by
tonight. Tropical Depression Thirteen is near 12.5N 40.2W
at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Max winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Thirteen will move to near 13N42W this
evening while strengthening to a tropical storm, strengthen
to a hurricane near 15N50W Thu morning, 17N55W Fri morning,
strengthen to a major hurricane near 19N59W Sat morning,
and move to near 21.5N 63.5W Sun morning.

$$
mt/ah
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