[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located over the central
tropical Atlantic about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands have become a little better organized over the past
several hours. The low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis
along 37W/38W. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the next day or so while the low moves toward the
west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic.
Additional strengthening, possibly to a hurricane, is likely later
this week while the system moves over western portions of the
tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. The disturbance has a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong tropical wave is along 16W, south of 19N, moving westward
at 15 kt. The wave axis remains over western Africa producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development once the wave moves offshore,
and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter part of the week while the
system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 kt. This
system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday
night and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development over
the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please,
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 79W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are
noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues westward to a 1009 mb low
pressure (AL95) located near 11.5N37.5W to 11N53W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N53W to 11N60W. Aside from the convection discussed
in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, isolated to
scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between 45W and the Windward Islands.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the SE US dominates the Gulf waters producing
gentle to moderate E to SE winds with the exception of moderate to
fresh winds just W of Florida, and in the Straits of Florida as
well as near the coast of Texas. A weak surface trough is over
the western Yucatan Peninsula generating a few showers. Elsewhere,
patches of low-level moisture, with possible showers, are seen
across the eastern Gulf waters. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft,
except 3 to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure over the SE US will support
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through tonight,
and gentle to moderate winds thereafter through mid-week.
Afterward, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle
winds and slight seas the remainder of the forecast period, with
the exception of gentle to moderate winds, mainly at night, just W
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
A few showers are near the trough axis. The northern end of a
tropical wave, with axis along 79W, appears to enhance some
convective activity over easter Cuba, and between Jamaica and Cuba.
Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
noted elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area combined with lower pressures in
northern South America supports moderate to fresh trade winds in
the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3 to 5
ft, with an area of 5 to 7 ft just N of the ABC Islands to about
15N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean the entire
forecast period, except for developing fresh to strong winds in
the south-central waters tonight into Wed. Gentle to locally
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking
ahead, an area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
is forecast to become a tropical depression or tropical storm over
the next day or so, and should cross 55W by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest 95L.

The remnant low of Katia is located near 28N34W. A band of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is observed on the N and W sides of
the low center. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong easterly winds north of the center with seas of 8
to 10 ft.

A surface trough extends from 26N64W to the Windward Passage.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated
with the trough that is a reflection of an upper-level low over
the western Atlantic. The surface trough will drift westward over
the next 48-72 hours. Farther east, a stationary front enters the
central Atlantic near 31N50W and extends southward to 25N52W.
Water vapor satellite imagery depict a strong upper level low near
30N43W generating isolated showers and thunderstorms. The
interaction of these weather systems sustain scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 23N to 28N and between 47W and
53W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of weak
high pressure centers.

For the forecast W of 55W, seas of 8 to 10 ft in N to NE swell
are occurring over much of the area N of 26N E of 65W. This swell
event will continue to subside today with seas less than 8 ft by
tonight. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm over the next day or so, and should cross 55W by
Fri.

$$
GR
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