[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 020248
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
200 AM CVT Sat Sep 02 2023

The depression continues to produce deep bursts of convection east
of its estimated center.  Scatterometer data measured the western
portion of the circulation just before 0000 UTC, showing no
tropical-storm-force winds.  While there is a possibility for
stronger winds on the eastern, convective side of the circulation,
the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be just west of north at 11 kt.
The depression is moving between a ridge over western Africa and a
mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic and expected to
turn to the northwest shortly.  By day 3, the cyclone is expected to
slow in forward speed as the vortex becomes more shallow and turn
northward in the low-level flow.  The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory prediction.

The window for potential intensification is quickly closing.
Vertical wind shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves
into an increasingly drier environment within a day or so.  Most of
the intensity guidance does not show any strengthening beyond now.
However, global models are not capturing the most recent flare of
convection and may be underestimating the short-term intensity
forecast.  The official prediction shows that the depression could
still become a tropical storm within 12 h.  Beyond 12 h, the cyclone
is expected to gradually weaken.  Simulated satellite imagery from
the global models suggests the depression should be devoid of
convection and become a remnant low in a couple of days or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 21.6N  28.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 22.8N  29.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 24.5N  31.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 25.5N  32.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 26.2N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z 27.1N  34.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 27.8N  35.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 29.2N  35.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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