[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 020243
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Gert remains relatively stationary to the southeast of Idalia.  The
tropical storm is quite compact and deep convection has been
persisting, mostly to the south of the center.  The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are steady at 2.5/35 kt. but the
other satellite estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin
are a little higher.  Blending all of the satellite estimates
supports increasing the intensity to 40 kt.

Gert has barely moved during the past 12 hours as it is caught in
weak steering currents between Idalia and a mid- to upper-level low
over the central Atlantic.  As Idalia moves closer to Gert, the
storm is expected to turn northward on Saturday, and that motion
should continue until it dissipates by early Monday.

The storm has been resilient in an environment of strong northerly
shear.  Although the shear is expected to remain high, it seems
likely that Gert will maintain its strength or weaken only slightly
until it becomes absorbed by Idalia in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 28.2N  54.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 28.3N  54.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 29.1N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 30.3N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 32.0N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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