[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 011438
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Deep convection is waning and becoming more asymmetric near the
center of Jose on satellite imagery as northerly shear from
Franklin's outflow increases. The low-level center is starting to
become exposed. Jose's initial intensity is conservatively lowered
to 45 kt for this advisory based on the automated Dvorak intensity
estimate from UW-CIMSS and the degraded satellite structure of Jose.
This lies near the average of the upper uncertainty bound from the
CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate (which incorporated the overnight
SSMIS microwave overpass) and the Dvorak estimates of 35 kt from
TAFB and SAB.

Jose is accelerating and the forward motion is currently estimated
to be north-northeastward (15 degrees) at 20 kt. The increase in
forward speed and interaction with Franklin could lead to a slight
expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds on the east side of
Jose. The tropical storm is expected to dissipate sometime tonight
as it is absorbed by Franklin. The track forecast is slightly
faster than the consensus aids based on the global model wind
fields. Little intensity change is forecast as the fast forward
speed of the system is likely to maintain stronger winds in the
eastern semicircle, despite diminished convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 36.0N  50.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 39.5N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart
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