[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 010902
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

After more than a week of meandering over the central Atlantic, the
circulation of former Tropical Storm Gert has again become well
defined, and the system has acquired enough persistent and
organized deep convection for it to be classified as a tropical
depression once again.  A recent AMSR2 microwave overpass shows that
the small circulation is located near the northeastern portion of
the persistent convective mass.  The initial intensity is set at 30
kt and is based on the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Gert is located within an area of moderate to strong shear.  The
shear is forecast to increase even more in the next 18-24 hours
which should limit strengthening, however Gert could re-gain
tropical storm status today.  Over the weekend, gradual weakening
is expected when the upper-level environment becomes more hostile.
The global models are in relatively good agreement that Gert will
be absorbed by the larger circulation of Idalia when it is over the
central Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

Gert is moving eastward at about 7 kt.  The eastward motion should
continue today, but by Saturday, Gert is forecast to turn
northeastward as it is steered around the low- to mid-level flow
around the eastern side of the larger circulation of Idalia.  By 48
hours Gert should turn northward around the eastern flank of Idalia
and that motion should continue until dissipation occurs.  The
track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but
there are significant differences in Gert's forward speed.  The NHC
track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 28.7N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 28.7N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 29.1N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 29.7N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 30.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 32.3N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 34.7N  51.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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