[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...INVEST-AL96/Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind
Warning...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 25N72W. A surface trough
curves from 31N70W, to the 1007 mb low pressure center, to the
border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, to a 1007 mb Caribbean
Sea low pressure center that is near 14.5N 76.5W, to Panama along
81W. This system only has limited time to develop into a short-
lived tropical depression or storm during the next day or so.
The low pressure center is forecast to move slowly west-
northwestward today, and then turn northward and northeastward on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong upper level winds and dry air by
Tuesday should end the chances for more development. The feature
is forecast to turn northward away from the northwestern Bahamas.
The chance of formation of into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours is medium. Expect E to SE gale- force winds, and sea
heights that range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from 25N to 27N
between 70W and 73W. Expect NE to E winds from 20 knots to
30 knots, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet,
elsewhere from 25N to 28N between 72W and 76W. Expect E to SE
winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights that range from
8 feet to 12 feet, from 22N to 28N between 65W and 72W. Expect in
the remainder of the area: winds 20 knots or less, and sea
heights that range from 8 feet to 9 feet in NE to E swell, from
21N to 28N between 65W and 77W and to the east of the Bahamas.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 330 nm of the center in the NE semicircle.

Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, and latest NHC
High Seas Forecast, at hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A strong cold front is forecast to be along 30N88W 26N95W 19.5N96W
in about 18 hours or so. Expect NW to N gale-force winds and sea
heights to be ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 21N to 26N to
the west of the cold front. Expect NW to N winds 20 knots to 30
knots, and sea heights from 8 feet to 9 feet from 21N northward
elsewhere to the west of the cold front. Gale-force winds are
forecast to accompany the cold front, as the front moves eastward
through the Gulf of Mexico, on Monday and on Tuesday. The sea
heights are forecast to range from 12 feet to 19 feet on Tuesday
night. Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, at
www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from 11N18W, to
05N34W, and to 06N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 03N to 12N from 52W eastward. A surface
trough is along 17N50W 10N54W, to the coast of Suriname along 56W,
to southern Guyana. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere within 390 nm to the
west of the surface trough, and within 1200 nm to the east of the
surface trough from 11N to 20N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
west central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind
flow is in the eastern half of the area. Moderate or slower winds
are in the western half of the area. Moderate seas cover the
eastern parts of the south central Gulf, leading toward the
Straits of Florida. Slight seas are elsewhere.

High pressure over the SE of the United States will move eastward
as a strong cold front enters the NW Gulf by Mon morning. The
front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening bringing
gale force winds and quickly building seas over the western Gulf
Mon through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish significantly
NW portions late Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

A surface trough passes through the border of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, to a 1007 mb Caribbean Sea low pressure center
that is near 14.5N 76.5W, to Panama along 81W. This system is
expected to move westward during the next several days. The
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
late this week, when the system reaches the central or
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in Haiti, and elsewhere within 240 nm on either
side of the surface trough. It is possible that heavy rainfall
from this system along the trough may continue in the NE Caribbean
Sea through the next week, which may worsen any ongoing flooding
hazards.

Moderate seas are in the far NW corner of the area, from 20N
northward from 80W westward. Slight seas are elsewhere. Some fresh
NE winds are within 120 nm of Cuba from 20N northward from 81W
eastward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period that
ended at 30/0000 UTC, are: 0.94 in Curacao, and 0.23 in
Guadeloupe.

Elongated low pressure extending from the adjacent Atlantic along
72W S-SW into the central Caribbean will shift slowly W and into
the W central Caribbean through early Wed. This pattern will
produce generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin.
Scattered strong thunderstorms occurring along and E of the trough
will shift westward with the trough through Mon night. A strong
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
INVEST-AL96, that is near 25N72W.

A surface trough is along 32N42W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center
that is near 30N49W. A surface trough continues from the low
pressure center, to 25N55W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from
25N northward between 40W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 30W and
55W.

A cold front passes through 31N15W, to 29N30W, 25N28W, 31N35W.
Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of the front, from 26N
northward between 15W and 25W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 24N northward from 35W eastward.

The comparatively highest sea heights that range from 7 feet to
8 feet are from 14N southward between 30W and 50W. The sea
heights also range from 7 feet to 8 feet, to the north of the line
31N10W, to the Canary Islands, to 27N30W. Moderate seas are
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 23N36W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 19N to 26N
between 30W and 60W.

Elongated low pressure extends from a 1007 mb low center near
25N72W to Hispaniola and will shift W-NW through Mon night before
becoming stationary across the NW Bahamas. Gale- force winds are
occurring NE of the low center and will continue into tonight
before gradually diminishing Mon. Expect scattered strong
thunderstorms along and E of the trough extending into the NE
Caribbean through Mon. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over the
SE of the United States will move eastward across the Atlantic as
a strong cold front enters the NW waters Wed and reach from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Thu.

$$
MT/gr
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