[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Texas coast on Monday morning, with strong to near
gale-force N to NW winds expected behind the front. As the front
moves eastward across the basin, gale-force winds will develop
behind the front along the coast of Mexico by Monday afternoon.
Seas will build to 10 to 16 ft. As the front continues moving
across the Gulf on Monday night and into Tuesday, gale-force
winds will also develop near Veracruz by early Tue morning. Seas
are expected to build 12 to 21 ft. Across the rest of the Gulf,
widespread fresh to strong winds with 8 to 10 ft seas can be
expected. The front will exit the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
The gale-force winds will come to an end by Wednesday night.
Fresh to strong winds will continue across most of the basin
into next weekend. Seas will begin to subside toward the end of
the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low
pressure, Invest AL96, is located to the E of the central Bahamas
with 1007 mb low center near 24N71W. Environmental conditions
are becoming less conducive for development, though a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could still form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
By Tuesday, however, strong upper-level winds and dry air should
end the chances of further development while it turns northward.
Regardless of development, this system is producing gale force
winds from 25N to 27N between 69W and 73W, and a broader area of
fresh to strong winds from 21N to 29N W of 64W. Gale force winds
are forecast to diminish later tonight. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook and latest NHC High Seas at
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N16W
to 11N18W. The ITCZ extends from 11N18W to 06N30W to 06N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between
14W and 42W, and from 06N to 13N between 39W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered across the middle Atlantic coastal states
extends westward to central Louisiana. This is giving benign
conditions across the basin with no significant convection.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin, except for
fresh easterlies across the Florida Straits and portions of the SE
basin. Seas basin-wide are between 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will settle southward to along
about 32N Mon through Tue. A strong cold front will enter the NW
Gulf Mon morning, and move SE across the entire basin by Wed
evening. This front will bring gale force winds and quickly
building seas over the western Gulf Mon thru Wed night. Winds and
seas will diminish significantly NW portions late Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Invest 96L, which is located north of the Dominican Republic and
east of the central Bahamas. A trough extends south of this low
to Hispaniola. Heavy rainfall from this system along the trough
could continue across the NE Caribbean through the next week,
which could worsen any ongoing flooding hazards.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica to a
1007 mb low near 14N76W to 15N72W. Isolated showers are associated
with this low in the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle variable winds
are associated with the low, except for moderate southerly winds
between the low pressure and the coast of Colombia. Gradual
development is possible while the system moves generally westward
at 10 to 15 kt. The chance of formation remains low within 48
hours as well as within 7 days. Otherwise, moderate winds are
ongoing in the far NW Caribbean and the far E Caribbean just E of
the area of showers and tstms associated with AL96.

For the forecast, elongated low pressure extending from the
adjacent Atlantic along 71W S-SW into the central Caribbean will
shift slowly W and into the W central Caribbean through early Wed.
This pattern will produce generally gentle to moderate winds
across the basin. Scattered strong thunderstorms occurring along
and E of the trough will shift westward with the trough through
Mon night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Invest 96L positioned north of the Dominican Republic.

East of Invest 96L, surface ridging prevails across the central
subtropical Atlantic anchored by a 1016 mb high pres near 22N40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, elongated low pressure extends from a
1007 mb low center near 24.5N71W to Hispaniola and will shift W-NW
through Mon night before becoming stationary across the NW
Bahamas. Gale-force winds are occurring E through NE of the low
center and will continue into tonight before gradually diminishing
Mon. Expect scattered strong thunderstorms along and E of the
trough extending into the NE Caribbean through Mon. Elsewhere,
high pressure centered across the middle Atlantic states extends
eastward and to the N of the trough and low, and will sink slowly
S to along 32N Mon through Tue. A strong cold front will enter the
NW waters Wed and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early
Thu.

$$
Ramos
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