[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning (AL93): A 1006 mb low pres is
centered near 21N94.5W over the Bay of Campeche producing
scattered disorganized convection. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted north of the low to 26N.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some
additional development while the system moves slowly northward
during the next day or so. The low is forecast to merge with a
frontal system lifting northward across the western Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday morning. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force wind,
especially in gusts, over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico
by Wednesday. Seas will peak near 12 ft Wed evening. The system
is then expected to move eastward into the SW Atlantic on
Thursday, while winds and seas will diminish in the Gulf. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product at
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A 1010 mb low pres near 09N30W
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
from 07N to 12N and between 26W and 33W. A tropical wave is
analyzed along 30W. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago
indicate that fresh to strong southerly winds are found south of
12N and between 23W and 30W. This activity has changed little in
organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a high chance of
development within the next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 83W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the wave from 10N to 18.5W between 81.5W and
84W, and from 17N to 20.5N between 76W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N17.5W southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure
(AL92) near 9N30W to 8.5N44W. ITCZ extends from 8.5N44W to
10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is along the west coast of
Africa from 06N to 11.5N E of 21W, and are associated with the
next tropical wave that is slowly exiting western Africa.
Elsewhereisolated clusters of moderate convection are within 180
nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 34W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
forecast in the northern Gulf on Wed.

A stationary front is draped through the Florida Straits and
extends southwestward to just north of the 1006 mb low pressure
(AL93) in the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen on satellite imagery within 120 nm north of the
front between 86W and 95W. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated
by a 1016 mb high pressure over northern Florida. Outside of the
influence of AL93, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, The front and low pres system (AL93) will lift
northward today through Wed, reaching along 28N, where the two
will merge. The low pres is expected to strengthen along the
front Tue night over the NW Gulf, and move eastward across the N
central and NE Gulf Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N
Florida Wed night. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms and
strong to gale force winds will accompany this low pressure system
and frontal boundary across the northern Gulf late Tue night
through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough stretches across central Cuba to the Cayman
Islands, with scattered moderate convection occurring within 270
nm east of the trough axis. A much drier airmass dominates the
remainder of the Caribbean, suppressing the development of deep
convection. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the south-central
portion of the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are found in the central and
eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the Atlantic near
24N61W extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas, and will
shift slightly W-NW through Thu morning. Moderate to locally fresh
E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central
Caribbean today then become easterly tonight through Thu, pulsing
to strong near the coast of NW Venezuela and N Colombia Tue
evening. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the waters N
of 15N through Wed near a tropical wave currently along 83W. Fresh
SE to S winds will develop across the NW Caribbean early Wed and
become strong Wed evening through Thu as low pressure moves
eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will remain fresh Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections
above.

A stationary front lingers across the southwestern tropical
Atlantic, extending from 31N69W to the Florida Straits. A pre-
frontal trough is noted about 210 nm SE of the stationary front.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found north of
24N and east of the frontal boundary to 57W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are present near the strongest convection. Similarly,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is affecting the
central Bahamas due to low level convergence associated with a
surface trough that stretches across central Cuba and a nearby
tropical wave. Elsewhere west of 60W, moderate or weaker winds
prevail, as 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 24N61W.
Seas of 4-7 ft in NE swell prevail west of 60W.

A couple of surface troughs are found in the central tropical
Atlantic but no deep convection is noted with these boundaries.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under a weak subtropical
ridge positioned west of the Canary Islands. Decaying northerly
swell producing seas of 8-10 ft is affecting the waters north of
the deep tropics and between 30W and 60W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through Wed, as high pressure builds W across the
remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE swell will continue across the
waters east of 65W through today then gradually subside. Low
pressure along a front is expected to move eastward across N
Florida Wed night, then continue eastward and emerge across the W
Atlc, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and
central Florida Thu, then move E of 72W Thu night, and across the
NE waters Fri and Fri night. Active convection with large and
confused seas are expected to accompany this low pressure system.

$$
Stripling
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