[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning (AL93): A 1008 mb low pres is centered
near 20N95W over the Bay of Campeche producing disorganized
convection. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft
are noted north of the low to 26N. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
favorable for some additional development while the system moves
slowly northward during the next day or so. The low is forecast
to merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by
Wednesday morning as it moves northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force,
especially in gusts, winds over portions of the northern Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday. Seas will peak near 11 ft. The system is then
expected to move into the SW Atlantic on Thursday, while winds
and seas will diminish in the Gulf. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for
details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A 1008 mb low pres near 08N29W
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
from 03N to 14N and between 23W and 34W. A tropical wave is
analyzed along 29W. A scatterometer pass from a few hours ago
indicate that fresh to strong southerly winds are found south of
12N and between 23W and 30W. This activity has changed
little in organization since yesterday.  However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has a high chance of
development within the next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 83W, south of
18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure (AL92)
near 8N29W to 10N43W. ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 11N61W. A few
showers are observed near the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
expected in the northern Gulf on Wed.

A stationary front is draped across the Florida Straits and
extends southwestward to near the 1008 mb low pressure (AL93) in
the Bay of Campeche. No deep convection is seen on satellite
imagery in association with the frontal boundary. The remainder
of the Gulf is dominated by a 1015 mb high pressure over northern
Florida. Outside of the influence of AL93, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida
Keys to the western Bay of Campeche. Weak 1008 mb low pressure is
located near 20N95W along the stationary front. The front will
lift northward Tue into Wed, reaching along 28N. The low pres is
expected to strengthen along the front Tue night over the NW Gulf,
and move eastward across the N central and NE Gulf Wed through
Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered to
numerous strong thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds will
accompany this low pressure system and frontal boundary across the
northern Gulf on Tue night through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough stretches across central Cuba to the Cayman
Islands, producing scattered convection about 120 nm east of the
trough axis. A drier airmass dominates the remainder of the
Caribbean, suppressing the development of deep convection. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, with
the strongest winds occurring in the south-central portion of the
basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are found in the central and eastern
Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off northern Colombia
and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of
2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the Atlantic near 22N61W
extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas, and will
shift slightly W-NW across the remainder of the Bahamas through
Thu. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across
the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue then become easterly
through Thu. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the
waters N of 18N near a tropical wave currently along 82W through
Wed. Strong winds will pulse near the coast of NW Venezuela and N
Colombia Tue evening. Fresh SE to S winds will develop across the
NW Caribbean early Wed and become strong Wed evening through Thu
as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Winds in the Gulf of Honduras will remain fresh Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections
above.

A stationary front remains draped across the southwestern tropical
Atlantic, extending from 31N69W to the Florida Straits. A pre-
frontal trough is noted about 120 nm ahead of the stationary
front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found
north of 24N and east of the frontal boundary to 57W. Fresh to
locally strong winds are present near the strongest convection.
Similarly, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
affecting the central Bahamas due to a surface trough that
stretches to Cuba. Elsewhere west of 60W, moderate or weaker winds
prevail. Moderate seas are evident west of 60W.

A couple of surface troughs are found in the central tropical
Atlantic but no deep convection is noted with these boundaries.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under a weak subtropical
ridge positioned west of the Canary Islands. A decaying northerly swell
of 8-10 ft are affecting the waters north of the deep tropics and
between 30W and 60W. Moderate winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic near 22N61W extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE
Bahamas. A weak stationary front extending from 31N70W to near Key
Largo, Florida, will gradually dissipate through mid-week, as
high pressure builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large
NE swell will continue across the waters east of 65W through Tue
before gradually subsiding. Low pressure along a front is expected
to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then continue
eastward, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and
central Florida Thu, then moving E of 70W Thu night, and across
the NE waters Fri and Fri night. Active convection with rough and
confused seas are expected to accompany this low pressure.

$$
DELGADO
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