[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic wave (AL92): A tropical wave is along
20W, south of 14N, moving west near 10 kt. A 1010 mb surface low
is analyzed along the wave near 09.5N20W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05.5N to 14.5N
between 17W and 27W. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by midweek, while it moves west to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 48W, from 06N to 18N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 11.5N between 43W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 72W from 18N
southward over northern Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Isolated small clusters of moderate convection dot the Caribbean
waters between 67W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues
to 1010 mb low pres near 09.5N20W to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N50W to 11N61W. Outside of the convection described in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is near the African coast from 04N to 07N E of 15W. Isolated
moderate convection is noted within 240 nm S of the monsoon
trough between 28W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Venice, Florida to near 21N95W to
the central Bay of Campeche, while a dissipating older frontal
trough is within 150 nm to the south, extending from SW Florida
to near 21N93W. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that
moderate to locally fresh northeast winds are are between the
trough and the cold front. Behind the cold front, north to
northeast winds are fresh to strong, and become NW to N and extend
within 90 nm of the Veracruz, Mexico. Seas of 8-11 ft prevail
north of the cold front north to 27N and west of 88W. Localized
seas of 7 to 11 ft are also noted in the offshore waters of
Veracruz. Light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in
the southeast Gulf ahead of both trough and the frontal boundary.
Widely scattered moderate convection is about the front to the
west of 94W, and across the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the front will continue moving SE, and
gradually weaken and stall from the Florida Straits to the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Mon. High pressure and fresh
to strong winds will follow the front into Sun evening, and
continue offshore of Veracruz through early Mon. The front will
then drift northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow
gradually develops across most of the basin. Low pressure is
expected to develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and move E across
the N central and NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N Florida Wed
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the
only significant convection across the basin is occurring across
the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia S of 10N.

High pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge
westward along 22N into the Turks and Caicos. East of the tropical
wave, E to SE trades are moderate, and locally fresh to the south
of 13N, with 4-6 ft seas. West of the wave, wind are light to
gentle, except moderate across the Gulf of Honduras, with seas of
2-3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will
continue across the eastern Caribbean this morning then spread
into the central Caribbean through Tue behind the tropical wave.
Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return to the east and
central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh SE winds will develop
across the NW Caribbean, Tue night through Wed night, as the
Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across Florida.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for convection in the tropical Atlantic..

Broad low pressure is across the far NW Atlantic north of 31N,
and extends a frontal trough southeastward to near 27N51W. 1015 mb
high pressure is centered near 22N55W, and extends a ridge
westward to the Turks and Caicos Islands. gentle to moderate
westerly winds are north of 25N between 55W and 70W. Mixed NW and
NE swell across these waters W of 55W are 5 to 9 ft in slowly
subsiding. A cold front is moving slowly across the far NW waters,
entering the area near 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are behind the front, where seas
are 5-7 ft. Light to moderate convection aloft is near the front.
Farther E, a stationary front enters the area near 31N25W and
extends to 23N40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted within 240 nm SE of the front, to the north of 24N. Gentle
to moderate westerly winds are noted north of the front, where
seas are 9-15 ft in large N to NE swell. South of the boundary,
light to gentle winds prevail, with seas of 4-8 ft in NE swell .

For the forecast W of 55W, he low pressure across the NW Atlantic will
lift N through Mon and allow a weakening cold front off of NE
Florida to move SE and reach from 30N70W to central Florida by Mon
evening, where it will weaken and stall. As this occurs, weak
high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and
into S Florida through Wed. Large NE swell will continue across
the NE waters through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move
eastward across NE Florida early Thu and across the far NW waters
through Thu night.

$$
Stripling
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