[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 08 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A broad tropical wave is near 19W, from 03N to 14N, moving west
at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N to 14N between the coast of west Africa and 24W.

A tropical wave is near 47W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 09N to 11N
between 44W and 51W.

A tropical wave is near 71W from 18N southward over
northern Venezuela. The westward motion is estimated to be 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 16N between
70W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and continues
to 10N47.5W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47.5W to 11N61W. Outside
of the convection described in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from
05N to 09N between 25W and 31.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to
to near Tampico, Mexico, with a pre-frontal trough leading the
way. Latest data from scatterometer data indicates that moderate
to fresh northeast winds are ahead of the cold front. Behind the
cold front, north to northeast winds are fresh to strong.
Additionally, north winds are strong to near-gale force within
90 nm of the Veracruz, Mexico. 8-11 ft seas prevail behind the
cold front north of 22N and west of 88W. Localized seas to 11 ft
are also noted in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Light to
gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas are analyzed in the southeast Gulf
ahead of both trough and the frontal boundary.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will continue to move
SE and reach from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the Bay of
Campeche Sun morning, then gradually weaken and stall from the
Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon. High pressure and
fresh winds, strong in the western Gulf, will follow the front
into Sun evening. The front will then drift northward Tue
through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across
most of the basin. Low pressure is expected to develop across
the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed and move slowly E and into the
N central Gulf Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, no
significant convection is depicted at the moment.

East of the tropical wave, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-
6 ft seas. West of the wave, trades are light to gentle, with
seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic
extends a ridge westward along 22N into the Turks and Caicos.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will continue across the
eastern Caribbean tonight then shift S of 17N and spread into
the central Caribbean Sun through Mon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany a tropical wave from Hispaniola to
eastern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return
to the east and central Caribbean, and moderate SE winds will
develop across the NW Caribbean, Tue through Wed, as the
Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across Florida.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections above for convection in the tropical Atlantic..

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are north of 31N,
and marine conditions continue to improve across the W Atlantic.
Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are within an area north of
27.5N between 58W and 67W. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 23N to 25N between 62W and 72W. A 1017 mb high
pressure is centered near 22N54W. A stationary front enters the
eastern Atlantic waters near 31N26W and extends to 23N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted 130 nm of the
stationary front. Seas are 8-13 ft north of 25N between 24W-68W.
Elsewhere, seas are 3-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N and into the Turks
and Caicos, S of low pressure dominating much of the NW
Atlantic. Associated cyclonic winds will gradually diminish over
the waters N of 26N tonight. Large NE swell will continue
through Sun night over NE waters. Weak high pressure will build
W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into Florida Mon
through Wed.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net