[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface 1017 mb low pressure is
depicted near 19N96W along a trough. Strong NE winds to 30 kt
prevail east of the trough and extend northward to 21N. Seas in
this zone are 9 to 14 ft. A 1027 mb high center was analyzed
across eastern Mexico, to the west of the low over the Gulf.
Therefore, a tight pressure gradient is supporting gale- force
winds off the Veracruz coast through early this morning. Rough
seas can be expected with these winds. Conditions across the Gulf
will improve today as the low dissipates. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone
border along 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 02N35W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N35W to 02N45W. Numerous strong convection
is along the African coast from 00N to 10N and extends westward
20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to
06N between 23W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning. Scattered showers are noted across the SW Gulf, south of
22N, between 92W and 98W. This convection is associated to a weak
low and a surface trough in the area. Moderate to locally heavy
rainshowers are seen in the central Gulf.

Meanwhile, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the
Gulf, centered on a 1028 mb high over the lower Mississippi
Valley. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche
with seas 8 to 14 ft. Fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
noted across most of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, gale force winds near the low in the Bay of
Campeche will end by this morning, with the rough seas subsiding
later today. Strong return flow will set up across the northern
Gulf by tonight ahead of the next approaching front that will push
off the Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection is
depicted in association with the front.

The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1019 mb
high near 32N44W to the southern Bahamas. This feature is
supporting a typical trade-wind pattern across much of the basin.
Fresh to strong NE to ENE trade winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft
prevail across the south-central basin north of Colombia. Gentle
to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted just
south of the Mona and Windward Passages. Moderate with locally
fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will continue shifting E
today as a front stalls in the NW basin. This will decrease the
coverage of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
today and Thu. The large area of strong winds will return by Fri
night as another high pressure builds over the area. A stationary
front stretches from Cuba to Belize with moderate winds and 7 ft
seas behind it. The front will linger over this area before
dissipating later in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is noted in the western Atlantic from 31N70W to
28N78W with moderate N winds behind it and seas to 7 ft. Some
showers are occurring behind it. A cold front extends from
southeast of Bermuda near 31N57W southwestward through the
southern Bahamas, then continues across central Cuba and into the
NW Caribbean. Isolated showers are within 150 nm southeast of this
boundary north of 25N. Moderate NW winds are seen behind the
front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Ahead of the front winds moderate
to fresh southwest winds are present with seas to 8 ft.

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a
1019 mb high near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas to 5 ft
are noted under the influence of the high.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N27W to
21N35W with a trough extending from that front to 17N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front N of 22N
and E of 22W. Moderate to fresh winds are ahead and behind the
front with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to
5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N58W to
central Cuba. The front will stretch from near 31N51W to central
Cuba, becoming stationary from the southern Bahamas to central
Cuba by Wed evening. The front will gradually dissipate through
Fri morning. Moderate to fresh winds will persist behind the front
today. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri
while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of
Bermuda.

$$
AReinhart
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