[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved into the NW
Caribbean tonight and stretches westward from central Cuba to
the Yucatan Peninsula along 20N. Additionally, a surface 1017 mb
low pressure is depicted near 19N953W along a trough. Strong NE
winds to 30 kt prevail east of the trough and extend northward
to 21.5N. Seas in this zone are 9 to 14 ft. A 1027 mb high
center was analyzed across eastern Mexico, to the west of the
low over the Gulf. Therefore, a tight pressure gradient is
supporting gale- force winds off the Veracruz coast through
tonight. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. Conditions
across the Gulf will improve on Wed as the low dissipates.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone
border along 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 05N24W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 03N32W to 02N45W. Numerous strong
convection is along the African coast and extends westward 18W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from the Equator to 06N between 21W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
across the SW Gulf, south of 22N, between 90W and 96.5W. This
convection is associated to a weak low and a surface trough in
the area. Moderate to locally heavy rainshowers are seen in the
central Gulf.

Other than the cold front mentioned in the Special Features
section, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the
Gulf, centered on a 1028 mb high over eastern Texas. Fresh NE
winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found across the west-central
Gulf N of 22N. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf, except for the Yucatan Channel, where fresh to
locally strong winds are present with seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast, a low pressure is located near 19N93W with a
central pressure of 1017 mb. A tight pressure gradient near the
low will support gale- force winds off the Veracruz coast
through tonight. Rough seas can be expected with these winds.
Conditions across the Gulf will improve on Wed as the low
dissipates. Strong return flow will set up across the northern
Gulf by Wed night ahead of the next approaching front that will
push off the Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula
along 29N. Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail N of the
front, across the Yucatan Channel and adjacent western Cuban
waters. Seas are 5 to 9 ft across this area. No significant
convection is depicted in association with the front.

The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1020 mb
high near 28N52W to the southern Bahamas. This feature is
supporting a typical trade-wind pattern across much of the basin.
Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the waters of eastern Panama and Costa Rica
south of 10N. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE trade winds and
seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail across the south-central basin, north
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to
4 ft are noted just south of the Mona and Windward Passages.
Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will shift E as a cold
front moves across the western Atlantic through Wed. Fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will
diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The cold front extends
across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula. Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds will
continue briefly in the Yucatan Channel with 8 ft seas over the
next few hours. The front will gradually stall from eastern Cuba
to northern Belize tonight before dissipating later in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N58.5W
southwestward through the central Bahamas, then continues across
central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. Isolated moderate
convection is seen up to 150 nm southeast of this boundary north
of 25.5N. Moderate NW winds are seen behind the front, where
seas are 5 to 7 ft. Ahead of the front winds moderate southwest
winds are present with seas to 7 ft. Another cold front curves
southwestward from the Azores across 31N30W to 24N43W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the front to
23W. A surface trough is along 31W, from 08N to 16N, where
isolated light showers are noted.

Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of
19N between the Africa coast and 53W/east of the first cold
front. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle NE winds and seas of
5 to 6 ft exist from 08N to 19N between the central Africa coast
and 32.5W. To the west, moderate NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
evident from the Equator to 19N between 33W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N60W to
central Cuba. The front will stretch from near 31N56W becoming
stationary from the southern Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed
morning, and gradually dissipating through Fri morning. Moderate
to fresh winds will persist behind the front through Wed. Winds
across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while
becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of
Bermuda.

$$
KRV
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