[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large and long-period swell
continues in association with 1006 mb low pressure (AL90) centered
near 28N37W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are north of 25N and
between 32W-37W, with peak seas to 13 ft. The primary swell is
from the north with a period of 10-12 seconds. The low will move
to north of 31N in a few hours as it continues north-
northeastward. These seas along with fresh to strong south to
southwest winds over this area are forecast to lift north
of 31N late this afternoon, or early this evening allowing for
marine conditions to improve. This system is forecast to continue
to quickly track north-northeastward toward much colder waters
and develop more pronounced frontal features during the next day
or so. Its chances of acquiring subtropical or tropical
characteristics appear to be decreasing.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W southwestward to 04N25W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 04N35W and to 03N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 240 nm south of the trough
between 16W-21W, and from 03N to 07N between 08W-14W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
41W-47W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed from extreme southern Florida to
23N86W and to a 1013 mb low near 22N93W. A trough extends
northwestward from the low to coast of northeast Mexico. High
pressure ridging is over the northern part of the basin. Isolated
showers are over the eastern Gulf north of the stationary front.

An overnight ASCAT data pass depicted strong to near gale-force
northeast to east winds within 90 nm north of the stationary front
between 83W-85W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are
north of the frontal boundary to 27N and between 88W-95W. Seas are
4-6 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft near
26N90W. Moderate or weaker winds are over the remainder of the
basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the basin, except for
lower seas of 3-4 ft south of 22N and west of 87W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front and low
will lift northward toward the northern Gulf through Sun. A cold
front will move across the basin Sun morning, reach from the
Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and from near Fort Myers
to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds
will follow this front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to
near gale force winds are expected. The front will move southeast
and south of the basin Tue night as high pressure shifts eastward
along 30N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Overnight ASCAT data passes noted fresh to strong northeast to
east trade winds over the south-central section of the sea to
along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. These
winds are roughly south of 13N and between 70W-76W. Seas with
these winds are 5-7 ft. Mostly fresh trade winds are over the
remainder area of the sea east of about 80W. Moderate or weaker
trade winds are west of 80W. Moderate seas are over most of the
eastern part of the sea, while slight seas are over the remainder
of the basin. Seas are currently peaking to 7 ft near the coast
of northwest Colombia.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the far southwest
part of the sea and just south of Jamaica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
across the eastern and central Caribbean sections through the next
few days, while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an
ongoing Significant Swell Event.

A cold front extends from near 31N50W to 27N62W, then transitions
to a stationary front to the NW Bahamas and southwestward from
there to South Florida. Moderate southwest to west winds are along
the front. Moderate seas are north of 29N west of the front to
57W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the frontal
boundary, except for the moderate to fresh west-northwest winds
that are north of 29N between 75W-79W due to low pressure of 1014
mb that is just north of the area near 32N74W. Seas with these
winds are of the slight range. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
south of 25N and between 65W-75W. Moderate seas are south of
the frontal boundary between the Bahamas and 60W.

Areas of rain, with embedded scattered showers are over the
northwest part of the area north of the NW Bahamas.

Weak high centers of 1018 mb are analyzed on either side of the
frontal boundary, one being near 25N57W, and the other one near
30N70W.

Low pressure (AL90) is analyzed near 31N35W with a pressure of
1005 mb. A trough extends from the low south-southwestward to
21N37W and to near 12N52W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
shifting east- northeastward are north of 27N and east of the
trough to near 30W.

Slight seas are present north of 23N and east of 20W, while
moderate seas are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move southeastward through Mon while dissipating. The stationary
front will weaken and dissipate through Mon. A new cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of northeastern Florida on Mon,
reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning,
then from near 31N56W to 25N70W, and as a stationary front to the
central Bahamas and to northern Cuba by early Wed. The stationary
front will lift back N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected on either side of the front.

$$
Aguirre
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