[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...INVEST-AL90 and a Significant Swell Event in the
Central Atlantic Ocean...

A 1006 mb low pressure center, INVEST-AL90, is near 29N37W.
A surface trough curves along 30N34W 23N35W 19N40W 12N51W.
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 27N
northward between 30W and 35W. Broken to overcast multi-
layered clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere from
10N northward between 20W and 60W. The primary swell has
been from the north with a period of 10 seconds to
12 seconds. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are
from 25N northward between 32W and 35W. Fresh winds are
elsewhere from 23N northward between 30W and 40W. Rough
seas, in general, are from 15N northward between 40W and
60W; and from 18N northward between 30W and 40W. Recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation
is broad and elongated. This system is forecast to move
north-northeastward 20 mph to 25 mph, into areas of much
colder waters. Expect more pronounced frontal features
to develop during the next day or so. The chances of this
weather feature acquiring subtropical characteristics or
tropical characteristics appear to be decreasing.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Offshore Waters Forecast, at the website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W and 04N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N25W, to 03N40W and 03N47W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N
southward from 55W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the
coast of Florida near 27N, just to the south of Lake Okeechobee,
to the south central Gulf near 24N90W, to a 21N93W 1012 mb low
pressure center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 87W eastward. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong,
are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate seas cover the areas that are from the coastal
waters of Louisiana to the coastal waters of NE Mexico,
and to the north of the Yucatan Channel. Slight seas are
in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force
NE winds are from 23N to 24N between 84W and 87W. Fresh
NE winds are from 22N to 28N between 82W and 90W. Fresh
NE winds are from 24N northward from 90W westward. Moderate
or slower winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from Southwest Florida to
24N87W and to a 1014 mb low near 21N93W. The low and the
front will lift northward toward the northern Gulf through
Sun. A new cold front will move across the basin Sun morning,
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and
reach from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche
Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front,
except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds
are forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia
beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 14N southward from 74W westward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 14N southward between
69W and 73W, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mostly fresh,
and some moderate, easterly winds cover the rest of the area
that is from 80W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in
the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much of
the eastern two-thirds of the area. The comparatively highest
sea heights, that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are within
240 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Slight seas
are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the eastern
and central Caribbean sections through the next few days,
while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will
continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds
are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the Significant Swell Event, that is associated with the
INVEST-AL90 low pressure center.

A cold front passes through 31N51W, to 28N60W, to 27N68W.
The front is stationary from 27N68W, beyond the coast of
Florida near 27N. Moderate to rough seas are from the
frontal boundary northward from 70W eastward. Moderate or
slower winds are from the frontal boundary northward.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 25N southward
between 65W and 75W. Moderate seas are from the frontal
boundary southward between 60W and the Bahamas.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong are from 25N northward between 50W and 70W,
and from 70W westward.

A first 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N57W.
A second 1018 mb high pressure center is just to the north
of the frontal boundary near 31N70W.

Slight seas are from 23N northward from 20W eastward.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from near 31N51W to 27N68W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to Palm Beach, Florida.
The cold front will move southeastward through Mon while
dissipating. The stationary front will weaken and dissipate
through Mon. A new cold front is forecast to move off the
coast of northeastern Florida on Mon, reach from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning, then from
near 31N56W to 25N70W, and as a stationary front to the
central Bahamas and to northern Cuba by early Wed. The
stationary front will lift back N as a warm front late Wed.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of
the front.

$$
MT/JA
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