[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a 1006 mb low pressure near 31N62W to
just to the north of the Dominican Republic, and curving into
eastern Cuba. This non-tropical low is forecast to
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by
the weekend. Regardless of whether this is tropical or not, the
low will support winds to gale force and very rough seas north
of 27N between 50W and 55W through late Wed. Fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas will cover the area north of 25N
between 45W and 60W through mid week.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will reach from near Mobile Bay to just S of Veracruz,
in Mexico, on Tuesday. NW to N winds will increase rapidly
behind the cold front. Gale-force winds will develop by
Tue afternoon offshore Tampico in Mexico. These gale- force
winds will spread southward, and they will impact the waters that
are offshore Veracruz in Mexico, from Tue evening through at
least midday on Wed. The sea heights in the west central Gulf,
and in the SW Gulf will range from 12 feet to 16 feet. The front
will be well to the east of the area by Wednesday night, and the
wind speeds and the sea heights will decrease.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 05N25W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 20W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
developing gale warning in the Gulf of Mexico.

A warm front extends along the north-central Gulf coast from the
western Florida Panhandle to across southern Louisiana. Farther
west, and cold front is approaching the Texas coastal plains.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
over the western Gulf, and light to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight,
bringing strong N winds behind it. Gale force winds will develop
off Veracruz by Tue afternoon with rough to very rough seas. The
front will reach from the central Gulf Coast to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Tue afternoon, and from Tampa Bay, Florida to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Strong thunderstorms
are possible along the front in the north-central and northeast
Gulf tonight into Tue. Winds will drop below gale force by Wed
afternoon with strong winds continuing across the SW Gulf through
Wed night. Winds will become light to gentle by Thu with seas
subsiding below 8 ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from the Mona Passage to 1008 mb low pressure
off Colombia near 14N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is evident within 60 nm in the southeast quadrant of the low
pressure. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated only
a small area of fresh winds within 30 nm of the center in the
southeast quadrant. An earlier ship observation indicated fresh
NE winds in the Windward Passage, but mostly gentle to moderate
winds are evident elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the shower and thunderstorm activity near the
low pressure remains disorganized, and nearby dry air is
forecast to prevent much additional development as the system
begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days. This
system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7
days. Meanwhile, high pressure building toward the Greater
Antilles Tue into Wed will lead to fresh to strong NE winds in
the Windward Passage and just S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds
will be moderate or less into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Atlantic gale warning.

In addition to the aforementioned winds and seas near the
frontal boundary and low pressure system, moderate to fresh winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted west of 40W. Farther east, a
stationary front reaches from 31N23W to 22N40W to 29N46W.
Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is propagating across the waters
north of 23N between 20W and 40W. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere east of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue
moving E through Wednesday then exit the region to the east of
55W. Northerly winds will reach gale force tonight N of 29N
between 55W and 60W, then track eastward through Tue night before
moving east of 55W by Wed morning. Very rough to high seas will
accompany these gales, with northerly swell leading to seas of
over 12 ft for areas N of 20N and E of 65W by Wed. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern Florida by
Wednesday in advance of the next cold front.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net