[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Ocean and Central Atlantic Ocean
Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front extends from a 1006 mb 31N62W low pressure
center, to just to the north of the Dominican Republic,
and curving to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Expect gale-
force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to
12 feet, from 29N to 30N between 60W and 61W. Elsewhere:
from 23N to 31N between 58W and 75W SW to W winds from
20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 12 feet. Expect: winds 20 knots or less, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in SW to W swell, in the
remainder of the area that is from 22N to 31N between 54W
and 73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 20N northward between 50W and the cold front.
The 36N40W 1026 mb high pressure center is forecast to weaken.
The surface pressure gradient will relax enough. The wind
speeds will be less than gale-force, later today. Building
high pressure from off the Mid-Atlantic U.S.A. that is to
the NW of the cold front will lead to rapidly increasing
NW and N winds behind the cold front later today. Northerly
gale-force winds will develop by this evening from 28N
northward from 63W eastward. The gale-force winds will
spread eastward, behind the cold front as the cold front
crosses 55W late on Tuesday. The wind speeds should slow
down gradually to less than gale-force on Wednesday morning.
An expanding area of rough seas that will range from 15 feet
to 20 feet will accompany the gale-force winds. Sea heights
12 feet or higher should end up covering the Atlantic Ocean
by Wednesday morning from 22N northward between 48W and 65W.
It is possible that a low pressure center may form along
this cold front near 30N50W by mid-week. It is possible that
the low pressure center may separate from the cold front.
The faster wind speeds will continue in parts of the Central
Atlantic late this week.

...Gale-force Winds in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will reach from near Mobile Bay to just S of Veracruz,
in Mexico, on Tuesday. NW to N winds will increase rapidly
behind the cold front. Gale-force winds will develop by
Tuesday afternoon offshore Tampico in Mexico. These gale-
force winds will spread southward, and they will impact
the waters that are offshore Veracruz in Mexico, from
Tuesday evening through at least midday on Wednesday.
The sea heights in the west central Gulf, and in the
SW Gulf will range from 12 feet to 16 feet. The front will
be well to the east of the area by Wednesday night, and
the wind speeds and the sea heights will decrease.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
southern Liberia, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W,
to 05N26W and 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 50W
A surface trough curves from Senegal to 20N19W and 27N19W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the south and
to the east of the line 30N10W 30N20W 10N50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the developing gale-force wind event.

Fresh to strong SE and S winds are from 93W westward.
Mostly moderate to some fresh SE winds are in the rest
of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are everywhere
in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment.

Fresh southerly return flow is expected over the western Gulf
ahead of the next cold forecast to enter the NW Gulf tonight.
The front will reach from south-central Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and from the Big Bend of
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale
force winds will develop over the west- central and SW Gulf
Tue morning through Wed. Rough to very rough seas are
expected over the SW Gulf by Tue through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 14N73W, INVEST-AL99.
A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to
the Mona Passage. Earlier satellite wind data were indicating
that the small but well-defined area of low pressure was
producing winds that were ranging from 25 mph to 30 mph.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 14N to
18N between 66W and 70W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the low
pressure center and the trough, and from 18N northward
between 60W and 70W. Nearby dry air is forecast to prevent
much additional development. The system is forecast to drift
slowly westward during the next few days. A second 1008 mb
low pressure center is near 14N78W. Broken multilayered
clouds and possible isolated rainshowers are elsewhere
to the east of the line from NE Nicaragua and SE Cuba.

The monsoon trough extends from the INVEST-AL99, beyond
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 75W westward.

Moderate seas are from the Windward Passage eastward.
Slight seas cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh
to moderate SE winds are to the east of the surface trough.
Moderate to fresh winds surround the INVEST-AL99 low pressure
center. Mostly gentle winds are in the remainder of the
central one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are
elsewhere.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 20/1200 UTC, are: 0.27 in Bermuda, and 0.11 in
Curacao, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Weak low pressure off the coast of Colombia in the south
central Caribbean has increased shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental dry air is still likely to prevent
significant development of this system as it begins to drift
slowly westward later this week. This system has a low chance
of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. High pressure
building toward the Greater Antilles Tue into Wed will lead
to fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and just
S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less
into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the western Atlantic Ocean and central Atlantic Ocean
Gale-force Wind Warning.

A stationary front passes through 31N23W, to 24N30W 24N40W
31N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm on either side of the front from
25N northward. Isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either
side of the rest of the front.

Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean
from 30W westward. Moderate or slower winds are from 30W
eastward. Moderate to rough seas cover the rest of the open
waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Slight seas are from the
Bahamas southward.

A cold front that extends E of Bermuda to east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands will slide E through mid-week, before
moving E of the region. Southerly gales ahead of the front
N of 29N between 60W and 65W will diminish today. Behind the
front, N winds will reach gale force by this evening into
tonight N of 29N between 60W and 65W, then track eastward
through Tue night to 55W. Very rough to high seas will
accompany these gales, with northerly swell leading to seas
of over 12 ft for areas N of 20N and E of 65W by Wed.
Looking ahead, increasing southerly flow is likely mid-week
offshore Florida in advance of the next cold front.

$$
mt/ar
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