[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is centered near 20.0N
76.5W at 18/0300 UTC or 75 nm W of Guantanamo Cuba, and moving NE
at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas at 7 to 9 ft
are found from near southeastern Cuba southward to near 16N.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near the center over southeastern Cuba. This system remains
disorganized and will move across southeastern Cuba tonight.
Afterward, it will track northeastward across the southeast
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sat before merging
with a frontal boundary on Sun. Tropical storm conditions are no
longer probable but additional rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts of 14 inches are still expected across portions
of southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sun. These
rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of hilly terrain. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
are also anticipated across Jamaica, the southeastern Bahamas, as
well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to
flash flooding in urban areas. Swells generated by this system are
expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern
Cuba through Sat. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the last NHC
  Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on this system at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front curves
southeastward from a 1002 mb low southeast of the Carolinas across
31N71W to beyond 26N65W. Near-gale to gale southerly winds and
seas of 13 to 15 ft are expected to linger north of 29N between
66W and 70W through Sat morning. Scattered moderate convection is
seen north of 25N between 65W and 73W. As the low tracks
northeastward across the northern Atlantic Sat afternoon and
evening, a new cold front will form and extend south-southwestward
from this low to near the southeast Bahamas. This should sustain
strong to near-gale winds and rough seas north of 25N and east of
66W through Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

Significant North Swell Event: Large north swell generated by an
earlier storm at the north Atlantic has reached 23N in the
central Atlantic, and 26N at the western Atlantic. Seas of 10 to
12 ft are persisting north of 23N between 30W and 55W, and north
of 26N north between 55W and 66W. Seas are going to gradually
subside starting Sat afternoon as the swell decays during the
rest of the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds are seen a
both areas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast
then reaches southwestward to 07N17W. An ITCZ continues from
07N17W across 05N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
present south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 09N between the
Guinea-Liberia coast and 15W. Similar convection is found up to
180 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves southeastward from near New Orleans to a
1008 mb low Cancun, Mexico then turns northeastward to beyond
southern Florida. Widely scattered showers are occurring near
these features across the central and eastern Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are evident for the central and eastern Gulf, including
the Yucatan Channel and easter Bay of Campeche. A 1014 mb high
just southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas dominates the western
Gulf with light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the low currently near Cancun, Mexico should
dissipate by Sat. The high near Corpus Christi, Texas will build
across the area this weekend and produce gentle to moderate N
winds on Sat. Then winds will veer to the E and SE on Sun.
Southerly winds will increase over the western Gulf Sun night
ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast
Mon night into Tue. Gale conditions are possible in the wake of
the front over the west-central and southwestern parts of the
Gulf Tue through Wed with seas likely building of up to 14 to 16
ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two and heavy rainfall.

A surface trough stretches southwestward from Potential Tropical
Cyclone Twenty-Two across Jamaica to the southwestern basin near
San Andres Island. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted near and up to 60 nm east of this trough. Farther east.
convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft
to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from 14N northward
to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh SE trade winds and seas of 6 to
7 ft are dominating the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh W to NW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the western basin, including
the Gulf of Honduras. Outside the areas impacted directly by
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, gentle to moderate SE to SW
to W winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two or its
remnants will move to 20.7N 75.3W Sat morning, 23.4N 71.3W Sat
afternoon, 26.5N 66.0W Sun morning. It will become extratropical
and move to 30.1N 60.8W Sun afternoon before dissipating Mon
morning. As this system moves north of area on Sat, a surface
trough is forecast to persist over the central Caribbean through
Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Gales and large north swell at the western and central Atlantic.

Outside the areas mentioned in the Special Features section: A
stationary front stretches southeastward from 26N65W to near
23N48W, then becomes a cold front and turns northeastward to
beyond 31N30W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection
is present near and up to 140 nm north of this boundary. A surface
trough runs northward from southeast Florida to a 1005 low off the
northern Florida coast near 30N80W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen west of 75W from the central
Bahamas northward to 30N. Convergent southerly winds are combined
with strong divergent flow aloft to produce numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection from 20N to 25N between 66W and 70W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to SW winds and seas of 7
to 10 ft are evident north of 20N and west of 70W, and also from
20N to 29N between 66W and 70W. Near the Canary Islands south of
the cold front, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 8
to 12 ft in mixed large north swells are noted north of 23N
between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. near the Cabo Verde
Islands, gentle NE winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft are found from 08N
to 23N between 20W and 35W. Further west, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen from
06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
winds southerly and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, as the 1002 mb low southeast of the
Carolinas moves northeastward Sat afternoon thru Sun, winds and
seas north of 25N across the western Atlantic should gradually
subside. Seas south of 25N will remain rough through Mon before
residual northerly swell finally decays further.

$$

Chan
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