[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is centered near 18.7N 77.7W at
17/2100 UTC or 20 nm NE of Montego Bay Jamaica, moving NE at 15
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 12 ft
are within 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery
shows this system is rather elongated in appearance resembling a
trough. Its associated convection has diminished during the past
few hours. The satellite imagery depicts the ongoing convection
of mainly scattered moderate type intensity over the central
Caribbean from 15N to 20N between 72W-78W and over the
southwestern Caribbean from 10N to 15N between 78W-82W. Numerous
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is well to the
east of the system over Hispaniola. The system is forecast to
accelerate toward the northeast during the weekend, with the
forecast track taking it across southeastern Cuba tonight and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sat
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in
areas of heavy rain, across southeastern Cuba and Haiti through
tonight, and over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Sat. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected
to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica,
southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sun. These rains
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by the disturbance are
expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern
Cuba through Sat. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low
is centered just N of the NW Bahamas near 28N80W. A warm front
extends eastward-southeastward from the low to 24N60W, where it
transitions to a stationary front that continues into the
central Atlantic. A cold front extends southward from the low
to just north of central Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the warm front between
78W-79W. A large area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded
scattered showers is seen north of 24N between from 67W-75W.
Isolated showers are north of 24N between 75W-79W. The pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure located to its
northeast has resulted in a broad area of east to southeast gale
force winds to 35 kt northeast of the low north of 29N and
between 70W-77W and from 27N to 29N between 70W-75W. Seas with
these winds are in the range of 10-15 ft. The low is forecast
to be shift to just north of the area tonight with winds
diminishing below gale force.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant N Swell Event: A large storm well to the northeast
of the discussion area has generated large northerly swell. The
swell has propagated into the region reaching near 20N. The
seas are reaching to 15 ft north of 23N between 40W-60W and
north of 28N north between 30W-40W per latest altimeter data
passes. The highest seas are forecast to peak to around 18 feet
near 30N40W. The swell will decay gradually during the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N15W to 07N19W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N20W and to 03N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of a line
from 07N31W to 07N36W to 06N41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1004 mb low is centered near the northeast tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A surface trough extends from the low to across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula and northwestward to 23N94W and to
26N95W. No significant convection is noted. Mostly moderate to
some rough seas are over the west central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate seas are over the north central and east-
central sections of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the remainder
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf from the east central and west central sections.
Moderate or lighter winds are over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak low will continue to move southward
across the south-central Gulf waters, and now it is located over
the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low will enter the NW
Caribbean tonight and open up into a trough. High pressure will
build across the area this weekend, producing gentle to moderate
north winds on Sat. Winds will veer to the east and southeast on
Sun. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf
later on Sun ahead of the next cold front which will move off the
Texas coast late Mon into Tue. Gale conditions are possible in
the wake of the front over the west-central and SW parts of the
Gulf Tue through Wed with seas likely building of up to 14 or 15
ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two and associated
convection.

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds and moderate to rough
seas are over some areas of the sea between 65W-80W. Slight seas
are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh
northwest winds are west of the Potential Tropical Cyclone
Twenty-Two per a partial ASCAT pass.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near
18.7N 77.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving northeast at 15 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will move to
20.7N 75.3W Sat morning, 23.4N 71.3W Sat afternoon, 26.5N 66.0W
Sun morning, become extratropical and move to 30.1N 60.8W Sun
afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. As this system moves north
area on Sat, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the
central Caribbean through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning, and a
significant N swell event that is ongoing in the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from near 31N31W to 27N40W and to 24N60W,
where it transitions to a warm front that extends northwestward
to a 1004 mb low near 29N80W. Clusters of numerous showers and
thunderstorms moving northeastward are confined to south of
24N between 67W-75W.

A surface trough is analyzed from near 25N39W to 20N50W to
19N59W. Areas of rain, with embedded scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen moving eastward from 29N to 31N
between 33W-39W. High pressure is present north of the
cold/stationary/warm front boundaries. A tight gradient north of
the boundaries is allowing for strong to near gale northeast to
east winds over those waters, mainly between the cold front and
60W. Recent altimeter data passes indicates seas in the range of
12-15 ft north of the cold front.

High pressure cover the eastern Atlantic east of the cold front
and surface trough north of about 19N. Moderate seas are east of
these features.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure of 1004 mb centered just
N of the NW Bahamas near 28N80W is producing a wide area of
easterly gales to the NE of the center, mainly N of 29N between
70W and 77W, and from 27N to 29N between 70W and 75W. This low
will be just N of the area by tonight with winds diminishing
below gale force. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near
18.7N 77.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving northeast at 15 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will move to
20.7N 75.3W Sat morning, 23.4N 71.3W Sat afternoon, 26.5N 66.0W
Sun morning, become extratropical and move to 30.1N 60.8W Sun
afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.

$$
Aguirre
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