[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two: Potential Tropical Cyclone
Twenty-Two is centered near 16.3N 80.3W at 4 AM EST, or 230 nm
WSW of Kingston Jamaica, moving NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas of 8 to 9 ft area present E of the
center. Convection has become elongated in a NE to SW orientation
overnight, and now numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection extends within about 90 nm on both sides of a line from
12N81W to 18N76W. A continued NE motion is expected today, with an
increase in forward speed through the weekend. On this track, the
disturbance will pass near Jamaica today, eastern Cuba tonight,
and the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas Sat. The disturbance is
likely to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Very
heavy rain from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will impact
portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, SE Cuba, and Hispaniola
through Mon evening. This rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding, with mudslides also possible in areas of higher terrain.
Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
  for more details.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low
pressure is centered just N of Freeport, Bahamas. A warm front
extends E from the low to around 27N72W. Numerous moderate
convection is noted N of the warm front, extending N to 31N. A
broad area of gale force winds also is present in and near the
area of convection, along with seas of 12 to 19 ft. These gales
will translate NE as the low moves NE today, moving N of the area
this evening. Gales will end later tonight, but seas in excess of
12 ft will prevail for areas N of 28N between 50W and 65W into the
weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant N Swell Event: Low pressure well N of our area has
generated northerly swell that has propagated into the region as
far S as 20N. Seas are now above 12 ft for areas N of 25N and E of
55W, with peak seas of 16 to 18 ft highest near 30N40W. This
swell will gradually decay this weekend, but 12 ft seas will reach
as far S as 23N tonight and remain above 12 ft through Sat.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ stretches from 07N18W to 04N35W and to 05N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is present north of the ITCZ to 08N and
between 31W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weakening low pressure, currently at 1007 mb, is centered just N
of the Yucatan Peninsula and is moving S. A surface trough extends
E from this low to near Key West, Florida. Fresh NE to E winds
are noted N of this trough, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in slowly
decaying swell. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere across the basin. A relatively dry airmass is
preclude any convection in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

For the forecast, the trough will dissipate while the low moves
southward into tonight. Fresh E winds to the north of the trough
will gradually diminish today. High pressure will build across the
area this weekend, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft
or less through the weekend. Southerly return flow will increase
over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front which will move
off the Texas coast Mon into Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.

All convection in the basin is associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Twenty-Two as a relatively dry airmass dominates the
remainder of the area. The gradient between the disturbance and
higher pressure to the N and E is leading to fresh trades in the
central Caribbean, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to
SE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the eastern basin. In the
NW Caribbean, generally moderate NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail, with gentle winds and similar seas in the SW basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near
16.3N 80.3W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northeast at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will become a tropical
depression and move to 17.7N 78.6W this afternoon, then become a
tropical storm near 19.9N 75.9W Sat morning. Tropical Storm
Twenty-Two will be near 23.0N 72.2W Sat afternoon, then become
extratropical and move to 26.4N 68.0W Sun morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, a Gale Warning offshore
Florida and N of the Bahamas, and significant N swell impacting
the north-central Atlantic.

Extending SW from the gale-inducing low pressure N of the NW
Bahamas, a cold front reaches into central Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is impacting waters in the vicinity of the
Bahamas ahead of this front. To the E of 72W, the warm front
associated with gale conditions described above transitions to a
stationary front that continues to around 22N55W, where it becomes
a cold front and arches NE to around 31N33W. Winds N of the front
are moderate to fresh and easterly, S of the boundary, moderate
to fresh SE winds N of the Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and
otherwise gentle winds extends S to around 21N. To the S of 21N,
moderate to fresh trades prevail W of 35W, with gentle to moderate
trades to the E.

Long period swell associated with the Special Features described
above is leading to seas of 8 to 11 ft across all waters N of 19N
and W of 35W, with the excepts of waters S and W of the Bahamas,
where seas are 2 to 4 ft. To the S and E of this broad area of
rough seas, 5 to 7 ft seas dominate.

For the forecast W of 55W, Low pressure centered just N of the NW
Bahamas will move NNE today, and move N of the area tonight.
Gales will continue to the north and east of the center through
tonight. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 16.3N 80.3W
at 4 AM EST, and is moving northeast at 9 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will become a tropical depression
and move to 17.7N 78.6W this afternoon, then become a tropical
storm near 19.9N 75.9W Sat morning. Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will
be near 23.0N 72.2W Sat afternoon, then become extratropical.

$$
Konarik
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