[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 16.0N 80.8W at 1 AM
EST, and is moving north-northeast at 6 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is located over the eastern semicircle, especially
between 72W and 82W. Seas to the east of the center are peaking
near 8 ft. A northeastward motion is expected to begin early
Friday, with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move
across Jamaica on Friday, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on
Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
on Friday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica,
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning.
Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Swells generated by the
disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and
southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
  for more details.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low
pressure is centered near Freeport, Bahamas. A warm front extends
eastward from the low to 26N71W, where it meets a stationary front
that continues into the central Atlantic. A cold front extends
southward from the low, across west-central Cuba, and into the NW
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring over the NE quadrant. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured gale force winds from 26N to 30N and between 72W
and 80W. Seas of 12-19 ft are noted in the area described. The
low will move NNE and move N of the area Fri evening carrying gale
force winds on its path. Strong to near gale force winds and
rough seas, however, will continue to affect the NE offshore
waters through the remainder weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant N Swell Event: A storm system that is well to the
north of our area is generating wave heights of 12-17 ft, from
25N northward and between 37W and 61W. The seas will continue to
spread eastward and southward, reaching 23N by Friday morning.
Seas will gradually subside late Fri into Sat, decreasing below 12
ft Sat night into Sun. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ stretches from 07N18W to 04N35W and to 05N52W. Isolated
to scattered moderate convection is present north of the ITCZ to
08N and between 31W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening low pressure of 1006 mb is located near 25N89W on a
southward track. A surface trough extends from SW Florida to the
low center. A dry continental airmass encompasses the entire Gulf
of Mexico, suppressing the development of deep convection. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally
strong easterly winds north of the 24N and east of 92W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, 1006 mb low pressure is centered in the central
Gulf of Mexico near 25N89W, with a trough extending eastward from
the low to to the Florida Straits. The trough will dissipate
while the low moves southward through Fri. Fresh to locally
strong E winds to the north of the trough will gradually diminish
into Fri. High pressure will build across the area this weekend,
with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less through
the weekend. Southerly return flow will increase over the western
Gulf ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas
coast early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.

Aside from Potential T.C. Twenty-Two, a few showers are seen over
the eastern Caribbean Sea, while generally dry air envelops the NW
Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge over the
central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America result
in fresh to strong easterly winds in the central Caribbean. Seas
in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
wave heights in the 5-7 ft range are found in the eastern
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 15.9N
81.1W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two become a tropical
depression near 16.9N 80.0W Fri morning, and a tropical storm near 18.7N
77.7W Fri evening. Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 20.8N
75.0W Sat morning, 23.9N 71.3W Sat evening, then become
extratropical and move to 27.6N 66.7W Sun morning, and 31.9N 62.0W
Sun evening. Twenty-Two will dissipate late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning, a
significant N swell event in the north central Atlantic Ocean,
and Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.

Aside from the Special Features mentioned above, a cold front
extends from 31N35W to 22N52W, where it becomes a stationary front
that continues to just east of the Bahamas. A few showers are
noted near this boundary. The pressure gradient between the 1028
mb high pressure system east of Bermuda and lower pressures
associated with these fronts and the gale-force low in the
Bahamas, strong to near gale-force easterly winds are occurring
north of the fronts and west of 62W. Seas in these waters are 8-12
ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are found in the area remaining north
of the fronts. The seas are described in the Special Features
section. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
present south of stationary front and west of 55W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging
that sustains moderate to fresh trade south of 20N and west of
35W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Low pressure centered just N of the NW Bahamas is
producing a wide area of gale force winds from 26N to 30N W of
72W. The low will move NNE and move N of the area late Fri. Gale
force winds will continue with this low into Fri night. Potential
Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 15.9N 81.1W at 10 PM EST, and
is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Twenty-Two become a tropical depression near 16.9N 80.0W Fri
morning, and a tropical storm near 18.7N 77.7W Fri evening.
Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 20.8N 75.0W Sat morning,
23.9N 71.3W Sat evening, then become extratropical and move to
27.6N 66.7W Sun morning, and 31.9N 62.0W Sun evening. Twenty-Two
will dissipate late Mon.

$$
Delgado
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