[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102234
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 06N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N23W to 07N39W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 12W
and 22W, and from 05N to 08N between 26W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 1016 mb low pressure over S-central
Louisiana to just beyond the Texas coastal/offshore waters
boundary 60 nm from the coast to N of Tampico, Mexico near 23N98W.
An earlier ASCAT pass showed fresh to strong NW-N winds behind the
front, likely now moderate to fresh based on the latest surface
observations. Surface ridging prevails across the east and
central Gulf of Mexico, along the western periphery of the Bermuda
High. Light to gentle SE to S winds prevail with 2-4 ft seas.
Wind speeds may be locally moderate in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the front will stall from near Panama City,
Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then
southward to Veracruz, Mexico this weekend. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front over the western Gulf along
the coast of Mexico through early next week. A strengthening ridge
over the SE United States may support fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas over the E Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent surface trough extends from near central Panama
across E Nicaragua and E Honduras into the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama N to
14N between 77W and Nicaragua. Additional scattered moderate
convection is from 15N to 19N between 82W and 87W, including
inland over coastal regions of Nicaragua and Honduras, including
the Gulf of Honduras and to the coast of Belize. Scattered
showers are also noted over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola in association with a trough located over the Dominican
Republic.

Fresh to strong winds are present in the central Caribbean from
11N to 18N between 68W and 80W, with seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate to
fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are in the E Caribbean, with moderate
trades and 3-6 ft seas in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the
Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure
will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight
decrease in areal coverage of strong winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high pressures dominate the Atlantic Basin.
1022 mb high pressure is centered near 30N59W, and 1025 mb high
pressure is centered near 34N19W. Light to gentle trades are N of
22N between 35W and 50W, and N of 27N W of 55W. An area of fresh
to locally strong trades is between eastern Cuba and the Bahamas,
including approaches to the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere, except moderate to locally fresh from
10N to 20N and W of 30W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
offshore Africa to the Canary Islands where seas are 7-10 ft.

A weak cold front is from 31N44W to 29N50W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 30N40W to 25N43W with scattered moderate convection
between 150 nm and 210 nm ahead of the trough. Seas are 7-10 ft in
NW swell W of the front to around 60W. Seas are 4-7 ft across the
remainder of the waters, except 3-5 ft N of 24N and W of 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge of high pressure along 30N
will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a cold
front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda early next week. This pattern will support fresh to strong
E winds over the waters south of 23N through the weekend,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Strong winds and
building seas will follow the cold front over the waters west of
70W Sun night through Tue night.

$$
Lewitsky
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