[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 07N39W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 10N east of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front entered the NW Gulf of Mexico earlier this morning,
and at 1500 UTC is analyzed from the Texas-Louisiana Border to the
Texas-Mexico Border. Surface observations indicate moderate to
fresh NW winds behind the cold front with slight seas. Surface
ridging prevails across the east and central Gulf of Mexico,
along the western periphery of the Bermuda High. Light to gentle
SE to S winds prevail with 2-4 ft seas. Wind speeds may be locally
moderate in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northwest Gulf will
reach from the Sabine Pass to near Tampico, Mexico by late Sat,
then stall from near Panama City, Florida to about 90 nm off the
mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the western
Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next week. Looking
ahead, a strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support
fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent surface trough extends from near central Panama
across E Nicaragua and E Honduras into the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to
12N between 77W and 82W. Additional scattered moderate convection
is from 12N to 15N between 81W and 84W, including inland over coastal
regions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean. Scattered
showers are also noted over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola in association with a trough located near the Mona
Passage.

This morning's scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to locally
strong trades across the central Caribbean, flanked by moderate
trades in the eastern and western sections of the basin. Seas are
8-10 ft in the central Caribbean, with Buoy 42058 reporting 9 ft
seas at 15.1N 75.0W. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern and western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will continue
to support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and
the Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high
pressure will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a
slight decrease in areal coverage of strong winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high pressures dominate the Atlantic Basin.
1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N60W, and 1026 mb high
pressure is centered near 34N20W. Light to gentle trades are north
of 20N, with gentle to moderate trades south of 20N. An area of
fresh trades is between eastern Cuba and the Bahamas, including
approaches to the Windward Passage. A weak cold front is from
31N47W to 29N52W. A weak trough is from 25N49W to 21N61W.
Scattered showers are noted over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola in association with a trough located near the Mona
Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft over open waters, increasing to 8-9 ft
northeast of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure along
30N will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a
cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda early next week. This pattern will support fresh to strong
E winds over the waters south of 23N through the weekend,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead,
strong winds and building seas will follow the cold front over the
waters west of 70W Sun night through Tue night.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net