[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W to 08N26W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N26W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 13N between 14W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high over northern Florida
continues to dominate the Gulf, providing moderate to fresh E to
SE winds and slight seas. A weak surface trough is in the central
Gulf lacking convection.

For the forecast, the weak surface trough in the central Gulf will
shift east ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
into the northwest Gulf late tonight and early Fri morning. The
front will reach from the Sabine Pass to near Tampico, Mexico by
late Sat, then stall from near Panama City, Florida to about 90 nm
off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to Veracruz,
Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over
the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next
week. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge over the SE United
States may force fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over
the E Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent surface trough extends across the western Caribbean
along 82W and S of 17N enhancing convection W of 78W. Moderate
trade winds are in the vicinity of the trough, the NW Caribbean
and the far E basin E of 64W where seas to 6 ft are ongoing. The
Bermuda High north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
trades in the central Caribbean between 65W and 79W. Seas are 6
to 8 ft in this region of strongest winds. Otherwise, aided by
divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the E Caribbean, mainly E of 68W.

For the forecast, the ridge of high pressure north of the region
will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will
support NE to E winds up to fresh or strong speeds along with
building seas in the Windward Passage and across the central
Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high continues to dominate the W Atlantic subtropical
waters with no significant convection. E moderate to fresh winds
are noted S of 25N and W of 55W, except for fresh to strong in
the approaches of the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft
in this region. To the E, the tail end of a frontal boundary
enters our waters as a stationary front from 31N44W to 21N59W.
Scattered showers are noted ahead of the front mainly N of 23N.
Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, a 1028 mb high is centered
near 33N23W. A tight pressure gradient supports NE fresh to strong
winds N of 18N E of 30W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over
that area, including the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N will shift
eastward through the weekend, ahead of a cold front expected to
move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early
in the week. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds
over the waters south of 23N through the weekend, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds
and building seas will follow the cold front over the waters west
of 70W Sun night through Tue night.

$$
ERA
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