[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Guinea
Bissau border, then curves westward to near 07N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N26W across 10N35W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 08W and 31W, and from
08N to 11N between 32W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high over northern Florida
continues to dominate the Gulf, providing gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and slight seas. A small area of locally fresh NE to E
winds is along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface
trough inland. Otherwise, a weak surface trough is in the central
Gulf lacking convection.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the central Gulf will
linger through the end of the week. A cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf late tonight and
early Fri morning. The front will reach from the Sabine Pass to
near Tampico, Mexico by late Sat, then stall from near Panama
City, Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then
southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of
Mexico through early next week. Looking ahead, a strengthening
ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas over the E Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough continue to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean W of 77W. Moderate
trade winds are in the vicinity of the trough, the NW Caribbean
and the far E basin E of 64W where seas to 5 ft are ongoing. The
Bermuda High north of the area, is supporting fresh to strong
trades in the central Caribbean between 65W and 79W. Seas are 5 to
7 ft in this region of strongest winds. Otheriwse, aided by
divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the NE Caribbean, including Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will build
through Fri then gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
This will allow increasing NE to E winds up to fresh or strong
speeds along with building seas in the Windward Passage and across
the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia through
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to dominate the SW N
Atlantic and E Atlantic subtropical waters. In the SW N Atlantic,
the winds are moderate to fresh and from the E to the S of 27N,
except for fresh to strong in the approaches of the Windward
Passage. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft in this region. Over the far E
subtropical Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient support NE fresh
to strong winds N of 18N E of 24W as captured by a recent
scatterometer pass. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over that
area, including the Canary Islands. In the centra subtropical
Atlantic, and between the ridges, the tail of a cold front extends
from 31N44W SW to 26N48W where it transitions to a stationary
front that continues towards 20N59W. Ahead of the front scattered
showers prevail N of 23N to 37W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building
along 30N through Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward
through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds over the waters south of 23N through the weekend, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong
winds and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move
over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda Sun through early
next week.

$$
Ramos
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