[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast the coast
of Liberia near 10N14W then curves southwestward to near 07N20W.
The ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W across 07N35W to 07N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between
the coast of Liberia and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered over northern Florida continue
to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide, except for
locally fresh winds across the Florida Straits. Fair weather and
slight seas remain across the gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over NE Gulf will
shift east of the area tonight. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast into the NW Gulf Fri morning. The front is then
expected to stall from the Florida panhandle to just offshore of S
Texas and extend southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat
morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the
front, especially over the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico from
Fri night through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge
over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds over
the E Gulf on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the north-central and northeastern basin,
including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Otherwise, a
trade-wind pattern dominates the region. Gentle to moderate ENE
to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the entire basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be
building on Thu and Fri before it begins to gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and
north of Colombia beginning Wed night through the next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir
and Tarfaya.

A cold front reaches southwestward from a 999 mb low at the
north-central Atlantic across 31N52W to near 22N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 280 nm east of
this feature. At the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough is causing
widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 26N between 30W
and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong W to S winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft are present near the cold front, north of 26N between 40W
and 54W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and
3 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 10N between 40W and the
Florida/Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and
seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate north of 08N between the Africa coast
and 40W. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and
monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of
the area today. The Bermuda High will be building along 30N on Thu
and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the
weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over
the waters south of 23N, including the approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas
should follow a cold front expected to move over the waters
between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun.

$$
Ramos
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