[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: NE gale-force winds off the
Morocco coast near Agadir are expected to decrease to between
strong and near-gale near noon today. Combined seas of 10 to 13
ft in this area should gradually drop to between 7 and 10 ft by
Thursday morning. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic extends along the Africa
coast just south of the Guinea-Bissau-Guinea border, then curves
southeastward to near 07N18W. An ITCZ continues westward from
07N18W across 07N30W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident near these features from 03N to 09N between Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 48W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northwestern
Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1020 mb high
pressure over the northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico.
Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering widely scattered
showers at the west-central and south-central Gulf north of the
Yucatan Channel. Gentle E to SE winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are
present at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high over the northeastern Gulf will shift
east of the area today. A cold front will move off the Texas
coast into the northwestern Gulf Fri morning, then stall from the
Florida Panhandle to a weak low near southern Texas with a cold
front extending from this low southward to near Veracruz, Mexico
on Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will
follow the front, especially over the western and southwestern
Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the north-central and northeastern basin,
including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Otherwise, a
trade-wind pattern dominates the region. Gentle to moderate ENE
to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the entire basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be
building on Thu and Fri before it begins to gradually shift
eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and
north of Colombia beginning Wed night through the next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir
and Tarfaya.

A cold front reaches southwestward from a 999 mb low at the
north-central Atlantic across 31N52W to near 22N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 280 nm east of
this feature. At the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough is causing
widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 26N between 30W
and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong W to S winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft are present near the cold front, north of 26N between 40W
and 54W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and
3 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 10N between 40W and the
Florida/Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and
seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate north of 08N between the Africa coast
and 40W. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and
monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of
the area today. The Bermuda High will be building along 30N on Thu
and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the
weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over
the waters south of 23N, including the approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas
should follow a cold front expected to move over the waters
between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun.

$$

Chan
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